is shipping industry comparable to the bee social set up?

Is shipping industry model like the bees set up ? bizarre question? not that much.

The bees set up:

One queen and thousands of workers around able to be here, live and survive thanks to the Queen. Living for one goal, pleased the queen.

Can we take then as granted?

In shipping industry, the Queen is the ship. By essence of our industry (otherwise we would have called our industry « moving commodities by the sea », which is not the case, yet !)the ship is in the center, all other people (companies, suppliers in our case) around exist, live, survive, thanks to the ship itself (eventhough we’ve been in a « charterers » market in the last 9 years). On this basis, you should really read this article proposed by Hellenicshipping which is also summarized in today’s BMTI.

 « Death of pure Owner Model », and the complete point of view of Mr Surinder Brrar, Director, Chartering Pacific or Pacific Basin Shipping

If the Owners model is changing, there is absolute no reason why the model of all the workers (suppliers) around will not be impacted by this change.

Charterers, brokers, bunkers providers, agents, insurers… All these business models will then at some stage need to adapt themselves to the new needs/queries of their Queens.

Less owners (managing more ships) will obviously impact the whole system. As mister Brrar’s saying this will not happen by a snap of fingers but should he be right, the traditional way of running business will be very different in the next years. Lot of readers in copy have been in the business for more than a couple of decades, they already know the way business is conducted today is far away from what they’ve been experiencing in the past, it seems the (r)evolution of our shipping experience is not yet arrived to maturity.

The good part of it? it might become more exciting.

the challenge? is to be actually here, in the next years with business up and running, to experience the next changes (let’s be crazy and say “to lead the change”, if we are not too old already)

I’m not a beekeeper but my uncle is. I’ll give him a call this week-end to discuss with him about the new psychology of the modern bees so I’m prepared for the next decade changes in the shipping world.

Waiting for the results of my chat with Gerard (my beekeeper uncle), still Pacific Basin, still, some quarterly results are proposed here

« With these key figures here « Average handysize and supramax TCE earnings of $7,920 and $8,920 a day were up 30% and 51% respectively year-on-year and outperformed their relevant indices by 20% and 11% respectively, the group said ».

On a more day to day prospective, on the handies, in Atlantic/blsea we are in a real « spot market ». where owners waiting for the very last minute to accept charterers low freight/tce proposals. Today’s BDI, we are not getting close to the +1,300points needed mentionned yesterday and we can wonder if Owners keen to give away their ships on period, are they « pure Owners Model » or what ?

Have a nice week-end and don’t forget to be nice with the bees, they’re somehow your partners on the road to success.

Rgds

Jerome (Promised I did not smoke any funny cigaret or anything like)

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there will be blood at sea?

nicer to put a picture of the cranberries harvest, looking like “blood at sea” rather than real sea coloured by whales blood which happens once a year also in Europe.

10 days without any market reports from here, in 2017, with Mobile device, digital connections seems like an eternity right ? I’m sure you all managed to deal well with the market eventhough surely you missed some of the spice of it (at least I like to believe you missed a bit these reports).

Not much movement on the average indexes in the last days (if not checking too much into details).

One market expert was claiming on july 21st « the BID needs at least an extra 1,300 points… to make sense ». I read very carefully the demonstration proposed by mr John Faraclas but unfortunately I could not find any rational behind this « 1,300pts needed »… could have been 1,299 or 1,301 (or 1,000 or 4,000) would have been the same. Maybe your falcon eyes will be better than mine. It’s anyway worth to read to have a summarized overview of the Geopolitic. Find it here

Assuming 1,300pts is the right figure, to save us all from Bankruptcy, we need bdi at 2,277. Try to remember this taste, last time BDI was above 2,000 it was back in early December 2013.

  • Petrol was around $100 per barrel today about half this price
  • Gib IFO at $585 / MGO at $929 today at $312.50 / $489
  • BCI around 4,200        today at 1,138
  • BPI around 2,000        today at 1,146
  • BSI around 1,500        today at   798 (change of index size)
  • BHSI around  810        today at   500 (change of index size)

At that time 32,500dwt was obtaining for 1/2 ll min 40 days aps Sw pass redel ECSA in chop skaw Gib US$ 19,200. When today, owners would hardly get more than $10,000. Capers from Dampier to Qingdao done at usd 13.60 / when today it’s worth $5.55

On Today’s market,

on the grains, Black Sea still not delivering the expected surged on the handies despite quite a fair demand is seen on the supras to go in Pacific / Indian ocean. Charterers getting around $8,000 passing Canakkale via blsea redel West Med. Spain will be a busy destination as we could read the expected grains crop being quite deceptive there, a 55kdwt was covered (last week ?) at $9,000 for redel Span Med.

Continent is giving quite good numbers for Handymaxes / supramaxes (if we take +10,000 being an ok level)  keen to load Scrap to Emed. On the grains, we have seen Spectrum (who are these guys by the way ?) fixing mv ‘Crux ‘  dop Brake spot w/ grains to algeria at $9,500 last week, which based on usual terms loading in Rouen shall give a voyage equivalent at about $17.75 pmt which we recon is on the high side. For early august shipment, the time charter equivalent is more around $8,500 on daily bss basis same terms.

Usg to Uk 33kdwt can hope to get $8,000 daily, while 34,5kdwt got $10,500 to end up in East med with Scrap.

Talking about bankruptcy, Sharks are getting around Noble whale who has seeen his share value losing close to 49pct today. There will be blood at Sea !  as Takis used to say (about twice a week if I remember well).

Have a nice afternoon.

Rgds

Jerome

 

Capers have found their master when it comes to volatility

Mixed sentiment again on the real chartering life on the handies in the med/cont/blsea with on one hand quite few fresh enquiries seen but still quite few ships still open spot and trying to get a decent money for their next employments. Let’s say Owners are confident market shall move up when charterers do not see too much reason why they shall consider higher rates than last week. Poker skills (not to say big balls, I’m trying to be witty some times) shall once again make the difference. From Black Sea it seems the confidence and upward on the Supras and the bigger sizes has not crossed the Handy barrier yet. Reading various reports on the commodity, the postponed availibility of the grains in Azov Sea and black Sea silos is one of the reason why Handies are not yet buoyant.

From Continent, we heard $16.10 was booked end last week from Rouen to algeria with 30,000 5pct bulk wheat with usual terms, could guess the $0.10 in the freight was a kind of a battle and meant few phone calls from the broker involved to try to get the best of it for both counterparties.

From USG, on handies still, Glencore trying to book a usg to New-Zealand cargo and $4usdpmt are appart from chrtrs ideas and owners’ ones, while very quick biz from Jamaica to ARAG was booked close to $1 below what charterers were initially having in mind.

Worth to talk quickly about Bunkers, Ecuador being in needs for money announced they’ll start increasing again for their Oil production. Will this be a domino effect from others OPEC’s member who all (or most of them) need to urgently improve their income. As a result we can expect Oil price to get down further, which again could be a good news for the shipping Industry at first glance. Not sure this is a great news on the long run, knowing most of the oil producers are also big commodity importers. Wheat rarely grow in Petrol fields. How will these guys finance the importing of goods is the next question? the one after is if they cut down their importation, they’ll need less ships in their ports right?

Finally doing a bit of “pela-gos-sip” according to Dailymail, George Economou, one of the shipping magnate, the one running DRYSHIP, might need to give away $240million to his ex girlfriend. I let you read this sordid story and to check, how worth is DRYSHIP, according to the nasdaq stock exchange here , not much. As a comment, we are saying Capers is the most volatile segment in our industry

Min max value in the last 12 months 556/2,765

Min max volatility in the last 12 months (% from Act) 2,209 (237%)

Can we say DRYSHIP is quite good also about volatility ?

rgds

Jerome

 

shipping a circular economy?

Let’s run some maths today, being fairly quiet here in France has locals watching the Trump Défilé in Paris and celebrating national day in France. This fixture reported today in the BDI is worth to be evaluated on voyage equivalent.

Ex ECSA ‘Pola Atlantic’ 2010 33465 dwt dely S Brazil 16/20 Jul trip W Mediterranean $13,100 daily – cnr

This lovely ship has probably been fixed late last week and was coming (in ballast ?) from Douala and circulated « open Recalada 20/22 july ». $13,100 is quite a number, and let’s run som estimates with different options

A/ bss  Dely Recalada (ship is assuming ballasting)

1sb San lorenzo where 7,000 satnoonshex

To 1sbsp Morocco where 5,000sshex and32’sw

This $13,100 daily gives voyage equivalent @ somewhere between $29.50/30.00pmt

 

Same assumption but to 1sbsp Algeria with 2,500sshex and 32’sw

This $13,100 daily gives voyage equivalent @ somewhere between $36.00/36.50pmt

B/ Assuming the ship got fixed on dop bss ex Paranagua to load in UPR, we can then add something like $2pmt on both options

What’s behind this fixture, which seems bit high compared to what we can see/hear/do on this trade ? Counting comparable ships registered in our database today max 20yrs old, from 27 to 39kdwat proposed this week and said in ECSA before 31st july, we can see 30 ships.

For sure Owners have good reasons to be confident, looking at Index the HS3 was at $9,736 when today it’s at $10,461.

Others which are confident about the future are Capes players, which according to BMTI are 1,265 vsl’s at sea, +2% of Capes are at sea compared to last year (weighting 322mdwt) and more to come, like 118 Capes are supposed to be delivered by end of 2020. All of this Iron ore to build… ships (and containers also)???

Have a nice week-end

Rgds

Jerome

 

 

 

how strawberries used to be shipped?

Good day, good morning,

Sorry I don’t have much clever things to say today about the chartering market. I could paraphrase the BDI easily with words such like “all indexes moving up to North” with a questionnable sentiment on the handies and supras in Atlantic, where it seems indexes are bit behind the reality of the market”. But in reality I don’t have much info in hands which I can disclose or which are enough to be able to guess for a near future trend.

So I let you make up your own opinion and will mention you few things about the bunkers and grains and food

Bunkers

If true, Owners might once again have been taken for a ride. Despite the Dutch ports being fairly well known for cheap bunkers, the local Consumer Authority is investigating into a ‘possible cartel in the bunker sector in the ports of Amsterdam, Antwerp and Rotterdam”. This “cartel” might be the only solution for bunkers players to be able to still make money out of their business. Today, a barrel of WTI for August delivery was traded at $45.23. Our friends, the experts, are now working on the hypothesis oil prices won’t recover before 2020. 2020, seems far away but reminding you we are already mid 2017, so A/ yes time is flying B/ 2020 is somehow tomorrow.

Grains

Any owners of drybulk carrier playing from handies up to panamaxes shall have noticed Egypt is a kind of a big grain importer, in the financial year, they imported 5.58Millions tons (something like more than 100 supras) , the plan for the Egyptian authority, is to make savings (rest re assured savings seems not to make the population starve (at least this is not presented this way)). Gasc would like to cut imports by something like 10% . Look at info here . If they manage to do so, no doubt it will have an impact on the chartering market and so on the commodity trading market.

Food

lucky you, today, ships have to feed 7.6billion people, by 2050 it will be (projected) 9.8billion (you appreciate I’m not saying “about 10billion people”, as the gap between 9.8 and 10 is still 200Million mouths to feed). You can read this survey here to make plans about your future trading routes. But don’t believe it’s going to be an easy path, look at this french start-up managed by Gonzague and Guillaume, these guys are growing strawberries in recycled containers based downtown. What if tomorrow their business model and future innovation is making Egypt able to grow their own wheat in Le Caire and around and get rid off the the millions tons yearly imported. What will we do with our 110 supras?

Waiting for this, should you have a supra to fix, please let us know we have few cargoes for her

rgds

Jerome

Momentum in Atlantic on handies

Good day,

Who knows, maybe atlantic market on the handies was awaiting for Jerome to take a week off to gain some momentum.

According to BMTI (and also from what we can see), BLSEA handy market is sparkling, with grains being in the starting blocks for the new crop and charterers seems to have secured 3 ships in a row for 35,000mt of bulk wheat ex Romania to Arag in the 13.00/13.50$pmt range. Prompt owners open in the area have no shame to propose their nice 34kdwat at time charter equivalent at $10,000 daily bss passing Canakkale. This seems to us bit early and ambitious, meantime charterers’ ideas are already giving something like $1,000 more daily compared to last week.

Continent is showing somehow similar situation, taking the Rouen to Algeria, all year long business (or so) as a benchmark, time charter equivalent for owners are now getting somewhere close to $7,500 daily bss passing Gibraltar while 1 week ago, it was more somewhere around the $6,500 daily mark.

Argentina, we understood from close friends, 39,000dwt being « on subs for a trip from River Plate to Algeria in the mid $12,000 daily »… converted into voyage terms, with let’s be crazy 33,000mt loaded on this ship, bss 7000satnoonshex/2500x this is leading to freight at $33.50/33.75 pmt. According to BMTI, charterers decided to ballast their in-house ladies from Gib and respectively Wafr to cover their next requirements. Nothing really new to ballast from Wafr towards ECSA I must add. Also this decision is surely helped by the low bunkers prices being seen lately. Some are saying (Goldman sachs) the Barrel of oil might get around $47 usd per unit for more than a while if OPEC is not getting more aggressive in their production cut plan. See more here

Finally, I often mention in this report difficult life faced by the seafarers and the risks they are facing on daily basis to transport safely goods from port A to port B. We shall not forget, in the grains industry, we all need farmers to grow, harvest, collect the grains and make them available in the ports’ silos, their job is not neither the safest one in the world. If you doubt it, you can find some info here. (where I have to admit, I’m not 100% familiar about this media politico.com, but like to believe they are serious guys).

Wishing you a nice afternoon, nice reading and let’s fix again ;

Rgds

Jerome