show me your love, show me how much you care”

Show me your love, show me how much you care” is Tina Karol (kind of famous) lyrics for her song proposed at the Eurovision tornament held in 2006. It could also have been drybulk owners “cry of distress” few days ago. But, if we believe what’s BMTI is saying today with “Owners have no reason to grumble, improving market conditions have not only been lifting their spirits but also their faith in a steady and even better 2018“.  So Owners are seeing market improving again, if they are looking at Grains movement, they have good reasons to have faith in the ECSA origin and Black sea one, with for instance, Russian wheat harvest almost doubled in a decade, with much of the regrets of other countries producers (competitors then) a quality which have also improved in the same time. Grains production in Russia, is said to be 130Million ton in 2017 (and nothing related to Tina)… Other Eastern Europe countries are not left aside of this quantities improvements. According to the attached picture, to name few countries in the black sea Romania + 75% (5.7MMT), Ukraine + 92% and close to 30MMT harvested (datas dated from 2006 to 2016 worth to mention)…

wheat production

Sure quite a bit to be shipped away around the world with owners lovely ships. The main risk with this world grain production for shipping, is if one day, at some stage, small importers are becoming self sufficients. Our shipping and trading world, to remain in good shapes, need unbalanced situations and moment of stress.

Talking about Black Sea, the local coasters have been enjoying a great time in the last few weeks, with rates unseen from a long time ago. Handies are also managing to make up rather good daily hire/or pmt freight. Today are reported 2 28kdwt managing to secure above $10,000 daily each for Blsea / Med cargoes. Knowing these 28kdwt are not any more the easiest ship to work nowadays, it’s somehow quite remarkable.

Ex Ecsa, the month end usual rush (thanks to the 7days notice) is looking like to be over. Still the last done will surely set the market for beginning December.

Continent, the traditional France to Algeria wheat is still in the air. Quite various Time charter equivalent are seen. Obviously this will depend on flexibility on charterers side and from where ships are coming from. Up to our knowledge, for beginning of December, a ship has been booked at $18.35, which if true, is a rather good number for charterers.

To conclude today’s report, LOVE, as not much to do in the chartering business. Yes, our late Takis, used to tell to his young brokers team: “brokerage is the art to put in the same bed owners and charterers for the duration of the shipment contract“. This did not necessary meant love was involved in this statement. In case, you don’t now Tina Karol, you can still check here the song . What about the lyrics? here they are . Feel free to switch “love” by “ship” and/or “cargo” or even “money. Your turn to be an artist!

Have fun and a nice week-end.

regards

Jerome

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skilled digital master

Good day,

lovely, Bdi is today showing back some green and are on average at +10pt, thanks only to the Capes gaining +69points. Nothing enough to open up the champagne bottle in owners’ offices.

As you can find in Bmti’s today report, fact that period business is back on the plate, is a good sign showing Owners willing to try to put their ships in capable hands to avoid the periodic stress of making decisions on what to do with the ships and where to send them. It also shows operators and big players believe some good bargain are to be made. After a nice autumn, until now in the East, Owners open there finding themselves bit stucked with not enough activity to maintain decent levels.

your readings for the week-end.

  • Timing is often said to be one of the key drivers in chartering. Nothing related, at first sight, with shipping, but an interesting information was found here yesterday evening. About Japanese train company, sending their deepest apologizes to their consumers, because their train left the station 20 seconds earlier (yes you read well, 20 seconds too early) than scheduled! below or attached)
  • 2020 Sulphur emission limits. -no exceptions. Rules for Ships complying with IMO… Possible detention & non-compliant ships could be considered as unseaworthy by 2020 (tomorrow at the scale of shipping), see more here
  • while Tesla launching is electrical truck, China is seeing at sea full electrical ship 2,000dwt to start with here charging 2hours = 80 km autonomy
  • finally, before autonomous ships which might not be for tomorrow, maybe be Digital skilled Masters will be the next big thing. and if this digital Master can do backwards jumps anytime before signing clean bills of lading, then it will be the cherry on the cake.

https://twitter.com/mrmedina/status/931291808394440706

 

rgds

Jerome

no change for a change

Not much to add today. What was right yesterday seems to be still in force today. In summary, for a change, not much market change.

In regards to S&P figures, I’m still struggling to understand why very much comparable ships namely

  • Atlantic spirit 33,427dwt built 2007 / Japan/ 4x30t cranes/ Mitsubishi /  sold at $9.8mio to turkish buyers

&

  • Atlantice Treasure 33,401dwt built 2008/Japan/4×30.7 cranes/ Mitsubishi / open hatch box shaped holds sold $10.4mio to greek buyers

Why $600,000 difference on their selling prices ? Is it the 1 year depreciation only ?

Same question on

  • IVS Ittiwake 32,555dwt built 2007 / japan / 4×30.5 crains /Mitsubishi sold $9.0mio to Greeks buyers

&

  • Olympia IV 32,029dwt built 2008 / japan / 4x30t cranes / Mitsubishi sold to someone at $9.8mio

selling prices showing $800,000 difference when ships are (on the paper) very much comparable. Is it the price for confidentiality?

 

you’re color-blind. Don’t worry I’m here to help you reading shipping market

After some bullish comments on the market made yesterday by BMTI correspondants (remember brokers being confident about the global world economic growth), today the comments are more bearish. « limited number of reported BDI fixtures » / « end of the year traditional rush is behind us » / « lack of attractive business » and so on.

I won’t learn you anything, to make up your own opinion about the market you have to read various reports, get your ears and eyes everywhere, discuss with your preferred brokers (just in case our landline +33 1 30 09 …. (I’m not crazy, I don’t want robots calls, contact me here or on twitter @jeromesorrel or linkedin or Tinder to have my details) this on the daily basis and the feeling you have on Monday can be confirmed and denied on the next Wednesday.

Facts are BDI are getting down, BDI, is back below 1,400points today, back then to the level we were seeing one month ago. Even color-blind players will take not much risk while checking the whole indexes proposed today, they are (almost all) in red. If you’re really color-blind, then sorry but you can’t apply for the jet pilot job, and to help you overcome this little disease, I can tell you only HS3/HS4 and HS6 are in green. A pale green we have to admit. Pale on the paper only (which please do not print, to save our planet).

If you don’t know whether you’re color-blind or not, easy, check the picture here.

dalton

  • If you see a bull, you’re either color-blind and/or an owners
  • if you see a bear, you’re either color-blind and/or a charterers
  • if you see an elephant, you’re surely a good brokers with a great market vision.

Owners in the Atlantic (except ECSA) are left with little choice than getting into firm negotiation with charterers eventhough, at first sight, they believed the « freight ideas » were « stupidly low ».

Talking about ECSA, when China was the center of the world not that long ago, on the handies, the grain activity is strong enough to bring a fairly bullish activity, with all major grains players after the same ships. Grains players having all the same requirements (either coastal to brazil or trans-atlantic to Wmed), owners can play with charterers (and sometimes brokers)’s nerves. Proposing their ship(s) to the best offer… for once, the BOFFER is not exactly what charterers have in mind while quoting their cargoes.

Will this last ? I don’t know, ask to experts !

For sure, as always, when an area is performing in a much better way than the others, the race for all owners being open with their ships there starting. But heading to ECSA (mainly the only hot spot) is not the « girl next door » and 15 days or so for ballasting shall at least keep the local market strong for the days to come.

To conclude this today’s report, again yesterday, comments about a gloomy/lovely strong economic growth will bring sun to shipping. You can read this document about china « fear of glut commodity ».

Have a nice evening

Rgds

Jerome the Ophtalmo.

 

 

short and sweet for today

All you need* is « convinced brokers about market to regain strengh shortly ». To my opinion, unlike the argument given in BMTI stating, according to brokers, the shipping market shall strengthen shortly thanks to « general favorable world economic conditions » is bit of a short analysis.

*alternatively all you don’t need depending where is your chair in the chartering game. Owners or charterers. If you’re both, I let you buy the aspirin and manage your schizophrenic job.

aspirin

Regards

Jerome

never to early to make some assessments

Good day

I’m still wondering how a market report sent at about 5.00Am London time today, can full of confidence declare “”the revival that coloured Capesize freight at the end of last week seems to have cooled off by the start of this week[…]”. Yes, 5:00 AM here is still around mid day in Singapore but are few hours still enough to assess on a market change? Let’s believe BMTI people are very well connected and know what they’re talking about. If we have a look at today BCI,  on average, we can assume their assumptions were the right ones.

BDI today is not showing any revival and very difficult to find out some Green in BDI’s indexes. As often, when market’s going down again, the usual “over supply of tonnage” is back on the table, which, unless I missed something in October/beg November, was still the case. You have access to some interesting datas on the greeks owners activity on S&P, and how Greek Owners are performing in this newbuildings/ Second hands ships market.

On the handies, taking the us$ 37.50 pmt mentionned by BMTI on a 30,000mt wheat from Plate to Algeria, on the basis of usual terms, ie 7,000satnoonex / 2,500th sat58amex, are giving something like $13,750 dely recalada on index 38kdwt. When the $34pmt mentionned in this BMTI is leading to daily equivalent at $11,600 or so.

Back on the Capes, the ones reading the futures, shall show some concernes about the expected daily value of their ships. November said “US $ 21,000” when January it’s only “US $ 13,000”. Other sizes are in the decline but not as drastically as the Capers.

On the commodity for those who were sleeping in the last months, you can still have a look on the Russian Wheat performance… and then once this one is read, we can therefore wonder why the Black Sea chartering market has not managed to be stronger yet. From another point of view, Russian Wheat is the big winner of the global warming but we can wonder, what’s the point about producing millions of agri food if there isn’t any body left to buy and eat the bread. And if you don’t read french, well what a mistake!

 

have a nice evening/afternoon

rgds

Jerome

Roll the dice or have faith in your opinion

Bit short of time to make a nice and funky market report today. Of course you can read the BMTI report, as always, nice and full of info. You can check today’s bdi index, you can also have a good summary of the week about to end in few hours here by reading Baltic Briefing Bulk report for week 45

If you’re lazy, in nutshell :

  • Capes : Wondering if any one doing Capes reading in Copy ?
  • Panamax : « the market has slowed and rates have softened everywhere»
  • Supramax : « Both basins this week have struggled, with most routes under downward pressure. The only exceptions being from the US Gulf which saw positive gains ».
  • Handies : « Once again, another fairly slow week with sentiment lending little support»

 The above comments are not mine, but only quote/unquote from BDI reports.

If, you’re more into,

  • what’s up for next week ?
  • and what shall we expect ?
  • next – week 46?

Here you have the alternative either listen to owners or charterers.

Owners words  are (all saying in atlantic on the handy segment at least) more or less as follow

  • « market has turned up again, don’t rely too much on the indexes, as you know they are always bit late and slow when market is moving the other way, the freight proposal I can (could) offer you today will surely not be here anymore next week».

Or listen to charterers, coming with their market vision, almost as follow

  • « Market is showing strong signs of cooling down. Indexes are dropping, the bunkers rally is about to be over, I’m surrounded by ships keen to offer on my cargo(es), I’ll play it easy and next week, shall be the shooting one ».

As a (good) broker in between, I’m sure obviously both parties are right !

Surely, if all owners on Friday afternoon are keen to shave a bit there freight, it’s giving a sentiment to charterers, waiting a bit more shall drag down the freight even further for next week.

We must not forget on the other side, if all charterers are awaiting for next week to move their next week cargoes, sooner or later the supply of tonnage will be tighter compared to now and as a consequence, this will give Owners the confidence to stop sharpening their pencils and to the contrary remain steady.

Looking like I have summarized the whole shipping cycles in few words ! I can’t remember who were writting down being bit short of time to put down a nice and funky market report ?

Have a nice week-end and don’t forget to roll the dices, shipping is about timing but also from time to time luck.

Lucky you, on Monday morning we’ll make our best, here at Pelagos, to be in front of our computers, right in time

Rgds

Jerome