stranger things is not only on Netflix.

If you really want to see strange(r) things, forget about your Netflix subscription and come and join the shipping Industry. We have full of weirdos in our community, thanks God most of them are nice. Weirdos but nice in a nutshell.

Not sure if you’re in the daily circular of this one, sending few times per month the below nice message:

“Can you please advise if you or your charterers have fully firm negotiable cargo shipments that are ready to fix today? Do you have freight figures in mind or on table? If yes, how much? Thank you for your time. (then details of the contact)*

if you’re in this circular, please do not hesitate to add fix@pelagos.fr in your reply to this smart brokers. Add Pelagos** only if you are giving to these guys your books and full set of constructive info which will enable us to serve you better. If in your books you also have some comments such like “Cargo B, is very touchy, we would rather pay 15% above market to secure the right ship with the perfect position“. Please don’t be shy, send it over also. Trust us, we won’t use these sensitive information against your interests, we might come up with a ship 20% above the market level, but you’ld recon, what really matters, is to have secured the right ship, right?

If you’re reply is “please put me off the list of your message?” don’t bother to put Pelagos** in copy. We’ll simply ignore your request and keep sending you bright and sharps emails, which is our Pelagos standard.

Also I’m wondering few things about this guys sending this candid emails. Why not asking everyday? Is it because, in between he got somebody who replied as per my  above assumptions and then the guy, having few bones to bite is focused on fixing and then coming back on the market once he has fixed many cargoes and ships. If so, the man is a genius.

If nothing fixed in between and nobody sending him anything looking like “firm cargoes fixable today“, why the hell is he keeping sending this stupid email to tons of brokers /operators/charterers? do they really hope to get a reply from a the new comer, the fresh trainee being happy to propose innovative solutions?

That’s weird but maybe I’m missing something. Tomorrow we’ll talk about owners/ owners’ brokers circulating 5 times a day a TBN ship said being open “WorldWide within 3 (maybe 4) months” after the day of sending the position. Is it to get a feeling about the market or just reminding to the shipping community, they’re still alive and looking forward for your fresh firm cargoes negotiable and fixable today? that’s a strange thing, but again I might have missed something.

giphy (1)

To conclude and talk quickly about the market, seems we are right now to the turning point. the summer lull is today and tomorrow. On Wednesday it’s pre “back to school” rush. Be aware and be ready.

regards

Jerome

*If you don’t believe me, I have a record of these messages and they trully exists. They are fascinating, really.

**to get our email adress you can contact us via this blog, via twitter, via linkedin, not via tinder – it’s only for personal use-, via snapchat, Facebook, Strava… what more do you need?

construction fail and that’s impacting shipping also

While OPEC were fairly confident about Oil demand in the next months/year no later than this Tuesday, the International Energy Agency has an absolute other vision and forecasting lower consumption from China and India. As a result, Barrel of WTI is down by 2% and getting back below $50 per barrel.

According to PBES, « batteries are the new oil for ships », you can find more about PBES here,  , I’m not quite sure this will apply soon for the Capers, Perry, on his side, is fairly confident. (obviously, he has to he’s the PBES’ CEO).

Batteries done by PBES (or Elon Musk or whoever) might be used for ship generators enabling the ladies to be fully digitalized. If you’re wondering about digitalization in shipping, might be worth to go through the 17mins of the lloyds meeting held in May 2017 which you should find here “digital shipping agenda”.

And if you’re a trader, still about digitalization you might need this technology to follow the moves on the dry cargoes (currently on oil only) and maybe then have a tool to anticipate commodity prices and future needs.

What’s making our era great is the fact that information is everywhere about almost anything and accessible by absolutely anybody. But no Matter about data available, decisions are still made without questionning about business impact.

Bmti is today’s mentionning a handy ship fixed and cancelled has she could not fit into the new Air draft restrictions to call the loading port (namely Kavkaz or Taman) thanks to a bridge being build up from Kerch to Crimea. We can easily presume Millions of rubles have been spent prior launching this fabulous new bridge (said to be the Most ambitious project of Russia and a multi-billion dollars & 12miles project) shortening road transportation, but none ever wonder if this would have an impact on the sea transport, again this could be funny, if billions of US$ where not involved either ways. Some might need to go back to the school of anticipation.
school

now please take your abacus and let me know how you would rate these cargoes seen this week

  1. 29,000 mts  10 pct mol  yellow peas in bulk 9000 mts  10 pct  mol Berdyansk (7.7m) + 20000 mts 10 pct mol   Kavkaz OPL / 1 sa Calcutta 2500x+3000x/4000x 10/25 Sept
  2. 25/35,000 mts bulk wheat Kavkaz Anch / 1sp Egypt Med 14/18 Aug 5000x/3500x
  3. 1 TCT VIA SAFE PORTS/BERTHS/ANCHORAGES AA AA ALWAYS IWL VIA BLACK SEA (INTENTION TAMAN) TO RED SEA, SUDAN LOA MAX 192M , DRAFT 10,5 M SW
    CARGO BULK WHEAT 35 000 +/- 10 % , SF 43 WOG – DUR 45 +/- 10 DAYS WOG LAYCAN 16/08-21/08/2017

Shall we suggest to chrtrs of the third one to get rid of a « AA » standing for « Always Accessible » before getting into trouble ?

Shall we ask Marinetraffic if any ship is found fully loaded in Taman and stuck there without any exit option ?

Finally, if you wonder what’s the market is doing ? I think he’s just laughing at us and will come back to us on Monday (or Wednesday only).

At Pelagos, we don’t laugh, never. Always serious, doing serious stuff and seriously available to fix your serious cargoes/ships. We are not mickeys.

Rgds

Jerome

dull and lull words of the week in shipping

“dull” is going to be elected the word of the week by BMTI, unless it’s “lull” (for the ones, like me, not being English speakers but more 100% froggies (“lull” = “Accalmie” and “dull” = “terne”). Dull does not necessarly means boring, except in oregon.

Continent/baltic:

Scrap activity is not enough to keep 5 digits numbers on the handymaxes or supras to end up in EMED. unless, again, Black Sea destination is the place to go. Which still again has to be proven. Grains players from this area are taking advantage of this gloomy summer and managing to save $0.25 pmt on this rouen to algeria stem compared to the last done which was 7 days ago. Moving to 3 Nigerian ports ex Klaipeda, according to BMTI, with 40,000mt, is not even worth a small premium, as Olam offering $18/mt (with free da’s at disch I strongly believe). A premium, if there is one could be “be happy I have a cargo for your ship”.

Black sea:

no much changes from what I can see. Still a fairly good demand on Supras and bigger ladies but Handies seems left aside of the road.

USG: quite comparable to Black sea in terms of market sentiment, except the fairly good demand is on the panamaxes and players hoping for Ultras and Supras to be contaminated soon.

ECSA:

we got the confirmation from experts (namely BMTI again) comments I made yesterday about the “northern Confidence” fixture which is perceived “outstanding”.

 

About commodities,

Grains, after French poor harvest last year, 2017 crop is back to standard level in terms of qtty. The humidity and floods seen in France has moved to UK and their crop is likely to be very low. this was mentionned here 20 days ago

 

about 2nd hand market,

Jp Morgan which we have seen buying “en bloc” setaf ultras earlier this year are also reported buying the 82kdwt “united World” japanese built in 2013 for $21.3M.

Shall we expect anything for the next couple of days this week? I would say it really depends who’s most in an hurry to enjoy a long week-end, as most of the catholic countries will be off on Tuesday 15th aug (and so doing the bridge on 14th aug).

Don’t worry, we are not in a rush to go to the beach, we’ll be here to do the recaps while you’re enjoying a spritz.

rgds

Jerome

money money money

Listen to this song again, close your eyes and take it “I” being a ship (not Neymar jr), Neymar could be the rich man… not leaving in Monaco nor Las Vegas but in Paris or around

 

Is checking information and datas enough to understand market, not quite sure…

Today’s bdi is mentionning 2 fixtures with quite really hardly comparable income for both owners.

  • ‘Northern Confidence’   (2016 34914 dwt) managing to get $11,000 daily for  Trip dely Santos 12/14 Aug trip via Recalada redel West Mediterranean

when

  • ‘Strategic Endeavour’ (2010 33078 dwt) is only getting approx $8,000 daily for  Trip dely Praia Mole prompt trip redel Continent

sure

  • Northern Confidence intake is bit better  abt 1.6m grain capacity Vs 1.5 respectively for Endeavour
  • N confidence speed conso is bit better about 2mt Ifo less at sea
  • tonnage demand is surely bit better while open in Santos rather than Praia Mole
  • redely Wmed is bit less exciting than redel in Continent (unless blsea waking up on these sizes)

Are all the above worth $3,000 daily difference on the hire? according to these fixtures it seems so, according to what we can hear/see/do, it seems so Northern Confidence fixture is quite good for owners. And Strategic Endeavour also has to work all night, all day, to pay the bills.

For sake of running the maths, mv’Northern Confidence’ bss 1sp upr to Algeria with agri prods 7000/2500x the voyage equivalent is somewhere around $32.50/33.00 sub final intake.

Finally for sake of comparing size performance, ultramax (All Star Atlas) is said to be fixed last week for a comparable biz ex ecsa to wmed at $10,500 daily but delivery being made in Abidjan (so about 4,000nautic miles and 14 days at sea to be added on charterers bill) which is quite far above the S9_58 route from wafr via Ecsa to skaw passero being worth today $8,923

That’s it for today and Bmti is offering a quite complete market overview on handies and supras in their “bmti’s handy bulk viewpoint” so time to subscribe.

finally should you wonder about why seaways bills of lading being a deal breaker for a potential fixture between German owners and Japanese charterers check here explaining why seaways bills of lading shall be cautiously used.

 

rgds

Jerome

13 reasons why you should read this shipping market comment

8 august 2017, 9 year ago it was the kick off the Beijing Olympic Games and the antechamber of the crisis we are going through… with Chinese stopping heavy and unrealistic importations to make « china looking Great » for the Olympics.

Here you have « 13 reasons why » you should read this report

1/ starting with China. China’s buying field all across the world to secure food for their future (if not current) generation. Question then : Will the seaborne transport from overseas to Shanghai enter into Statistics as « importation » or « national » production ?

2/ Financial times not mentionning everyday Shipping Industry in their newspaper. When they do, they only focus on the visible part of the iceberg. Who’s up to tell Financial times Shipping is mainly surrounded by good and valuable people not only « idiots » ?

3/ Breaking news, Bunge finally fixed

4/ Black sea remains on the hope for Handy owners (and Greek operators apparently) Blsea Med biz are still done below $8,000 daily, which is still (theorically) not enough for making west med ballasters to consider

5/ about black Sea owners of Ismini 28kdwt reported fixed at $9,200 ex santos to Blsea, with sugar for Dreyfus, Owners standing between the devil and the deep sea. Struggling to take advantage of ECSA position, which should be a good one and surely hoping for the Black sea repositionning to be the right bet in 35 days.

6/ this Ismini fixture to be compared, if you fancy, with last week fixture, still committed by Dreyfus on Praetorius at $9,500 to Skaw/passero range (and reported in BHSI). Shall Praetorius end up in Central Med or Adriatic and this fixture is not a great bargain for owners (compared to ISMINI showing specs being less interesting than Praetorius)

7/ I’m proud to realize (and so I share the info w/ you) Bloomberg seems to be a big follower of my daily reports, and wanted to add some scientists facts about the Bees health and my « bee theory applied about shipping ». Thanks Michael for the update.

8/ wondering how Cargill performed so far, you have access here to their 2017 annual report and where they spent $1billion to « thrive the world »

9/ alternatively about 8/… wait for analysts to go through these 20pages and make bright comments

10/ alternatively about 8/ be curious and go page 6 where you can read « Cargill manages approximatively 250,000 shipments of goods across borders every year ». And you? how many fixtures do you have with these guys per year?

11/ alternatively about 8/ be curious and go page 12 « 98% of Cargill’s drybulk fleet has been vetted w/ one of the five highest grades efficiency from Rightship ». Owners willing to work with Cargill, shall better then checked how many stars their fleet is having from Rightship. Rightship in shipping is what’s Moody’s in the financial world !

12/ today’s international cat’s day and this is not enough to make BHSI on the rise again. HS3 below $9,400 today / HS4 keeps sliding close to $7,000. Asian market is comparatively in a better shape and managing to contain the drop.

13/ related to 3/. What did they fixed more precisely ? this is still under investigation here we’ll let you know once found.

Regards

Jerome

 

final end to the “Queen Bee” concept

Friday afternoon, let’s put a final end to this « Queen Bee » concept by adding a « r » at the end, and trust all of you will agree, what really matter is to enjoy a fresh « Queen Beer » to start on the right way the week-end.

To enjoy this, sale 4 or 5 of your DRY’s or NAVIOS’ shares and with the 5$ you get, get a pint. On the chartering, we can notice all the today’s Handy routes are in negative mood. With HS3 (ecsa/skaw Pass) losing for the 2nd time in  row close to 190 points, getting dangerously close to the $9,500 mark. HS4 (USG to Skaw pass) is even a bigger loser, with 385 points lost in the last 2 days of quotation and shall this move keep going on, will flirt with the $7,000 mark. Don’t worry, we are safe, BDI still above the 1,000points mark. Last Monday, BDI was at 946. So you see, market is going up, market IS ON FIRE, we just need to focus on the right figures. Should you wish to have the past week for the durance of a blink of an eye, follow this link.

Starting with « A stronger week for the big ships » and concluded with « some brokers commented that the negative trend could remain next week ». Market is on fire, just don’t read the Handy section.

Have a nice week-end

Jerome

 

Shipping and Queen bee part B

The “Queen Bee” theory developped here one week ago (last friday precisely is shipping industry comparable to the bee social set up?) happened to be more controversial than expected.

Owners reading in copy, applauded the concept of their lovely ladies being in the center of our shipping world, claiming “no ships no transportation by sea” (which is kind of an obvious and stupid statement, but I kept this comment for myself, they are also my principals).

On the other side, charterers reading in copy, did not buy this theory of the “Queen bee” claiming, “no cargoes to move, ships won’t get fixed for moving air” ” (which is kind of an obvious and stupid statement, but I kept this comment for myself, they are also my principals).

All in all, the way chartering/shipping (call it how you want, I’m not after anymore controversy) market has been moving in the last 5 business days tend to make me believe we can call it the way we want, who cares at the end, there is no market anymore, yet, for now.

On handies very little demand is seen from the baltic to blsea area. Could have a technical squeeze ex continent in case Black Sea is starting to shine in the dark. (few Owners open Wmed are placing their bets and moving East, rather than up to continent), this could lead then to Continent being less supplied by tonnage. This is theorical, and also to try not to be only negative in my today’s comments. As, as off today, owners being open for 7 days in Gibraltar are ready to give away their ships at equivalent below 5k$ passing gibraltar via continent with redely West Med with grains. We have also seen owners losing their faith and begging for a firm offer claiming “being here to compete” when their first indication was 15% above the competition proposals. USG is looking like a future battle from owners to catch the cargo which may pop up. Ecsa, if we are believing in the indexes (which we have to at some stage) is not looking too bright.

Finally, to try to give you some insight, as mentionned by BMTI (a good source of info about shipping) the “Sauron project” about ports and cyber security, done on European funds, with super technology to super protect our super ports super cargoes and super ships. I’m just wondering how relevant is it to advertise such program and explain (as done here)  all the great work they’re going to put in place.

Guys, don’t hesitate to post the PIN code of your program on Facebook, you’ll save time to the cyber pirats.

Finally are the future “Queen Bee” the cyber pirats?

have a nice day and remaining at your disposal shinc, weather permitting.

rgds

Jerome