Let’s run some maths today, being fairly quiet here in France has locals watching the Trump Défilé in Paris and celebrating national day in France. This fixture reported today in the BDI is worth to be evaluated on voyage equivalent.
Ex ECSA ‘Pola Atlantic’ 2010 33465 dwt dely S Brazil 16/20 Jul trip W Mediterranean $13,100 daily – cnr
This lovely ship has probably been fixed late last week and was coming (in ballast ?) from Douala and circulated « open Recalada 20/22 july ». $13,100 is quite a number, and let’s run som estimates with different options
A/ bss Dely Recalada (ship is assuming ballasting)
1sb San lorenzo where 7,000 satnoonshex
To 1sbsp Morocco where 5,000sshex and32’sw
This $13,100 daily gives voyage equivalent @ somewhere between $29.50/30.00pmt
Same assumption but to 1sbsp Algeria with 2,500sshex and 32’sw
This $13,100 daily gives voyage equivalent @ somewhere between $36.00/36.50pmt
B/ Assuming the ship got fixed on dop bss ex Paranagua to load in UPR, we can then add something like $2pmt on both options
What’s behind this fixture, which seems bit high compared to what we can see/hear/do on this trade ? Counting comparable ships registered in our database today max 20yrs old, from 27 to 39kdwat proposed this week and said in ECSA before 31st july, we can see 30 ships.
For sure Owners have good reasons to be confident, looking at Index the HS3 was at $9,736 when today it’s at $10,461.
Others which are confident about the future are Capes players, which according to BMTI are 1,265 vsl’s at sea, +2% of Capes are at sea compared to last year (weighting 322mdwt) and more to come, like 118 Capes are supposed to be delivered by end of 2020. All of this Iron ore to build… ships (and containers also)???
Have a nice week-end