Good day, good morning,
Non shipping people often struggle to understand why we, the shipping mates, are somehow reluctant to take many days off in a row. I’m just back from a long week-end and yes, it’s difficult to get back into the market and try to get back with a decent picture on where the market is, where the market heading to and what are the main key drivers influencing the daily value of the ships?
Yes, Oil has hitted 3 years high records near $70 a barrel leading Bunkers prices up. This is not enough to bring freight up. Ships market value on chartering according to the index is back before the “Autumn 2017 rally”, today BDI is at 1,139. BDI was touch below this level back on Aug 12th 2017. This downside is mainly driven by the big ladies and the overall Pacific Market, Capesize being in free fall since beginning of the year. 4,211 was the index back on 13th dec 2017, today, one month later 1,611 only.
As mentionned by BMTI today, the pre Chinese holiday rush has not popped up yet and it’s quite likely Owners will need to be bit (more and again) patient. Market revival on the Capes might come up 15/10 days before China being off and back again beg March when Asia is back on track.
In today’s BDI fixture list, this Kambos fixture raised our attention “‘Kambos’ 2008 33,225 dwt dely Rio De Janeiro 21/25 Jan trip via Plate redel Algeria $16,250 – Seaside”… $16,250 is quite above today’s HS3_38 route showing $15,631 with a +$101. Knowing Kambos, is it worth to highlight, is not really a 38kdwt index type. When these index ships can load somewhere close to 32,500mt of bulk wheat on 32’sw , the Kambos, shall only be able to load something like 31,000mt. For the sake of running the voyage equivalent, on the usual argentinean/algerian terms ie 7000satnoonshex / 2500th5pmSun8amshex
If my estimations are not too wrong,
- bss 31,000mt loaded, $16,250 dely RdJ is bringing the freight per metric ton @ $43.00
- bss 32,500mt loaded, (intake of a modern 38kdwt), freight pmt likely to be @ $41.50
- bss today’s index, on 32,500mt loaded, freight shall be @ 40.50…
- Knowing similar trade was concluded last week touch below $39pmt on voyage basis (tce being then around $14,750)
Would it mean Index is short by $2.50pmt on this route?
Having run the maths, now back to the opening off today’s market comment
“where is the market?”
Is one fixture setting up a route value?
Certainly not, meantime this is somehow setting the “last done” and of course, Owners will argue, this fixture is a proof ECSA handy market is picking up, and they’ll be right to try to obtain “as per last reported”.
Of course, on the other side, Charterers will argue, not to forget what’s behind the scene on this fixture, if charterers were squeezed and in need for this specific ship, yes they probably paid a premium to secure the candidate, adding, “this is a specific scenario and we don’t change our ideas, as we are not in a rush”. Charterers will probably be also right with this statement. Usual game.
Appart from that, hanging around on various shipping market source of information, you have not missed (or you were sleeping on the moon in the last months), greener sea transportation is one of the key challenge ahead of our industry (beside knowing with no doubt where the market is?). Lloydslist is having in Gothenborg, now, an “intelligence Executive Meeting”. Managing director of MSC Sweden, (if you’re wondering who’s MSC, they claim to be “a world leader in Global Container shipping I’m a big guy) Morten Moller Wesidal, to name him, is declaring “Our customers don’t care about the environment. They won’t give us one extra dollar to be green, whatever they say“.
It’s probably a shortcut to say “customers don’t care” but it’s still probably right, customers (which could also be called charterers) are hardly valuing greener transportation.
It is also said “Cyber risk is a major boardroom headache, with cost of damage last year (not only in shipping) estimated at $1 trillion… three times damage causes by natural disasters“. (this is a Davos meeting statement, sure these guys know about intelligence).
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”fr”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”><a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cyber?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#Cyber</a> risk is a major boardroom headache, with cost of damage last year estimated at $1 Trillion, three times damage caused by natural disasters, says <a href=”https://twitter.com/wef?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@wef</a> today</p>— Richard Clayton (@rjbclayton) <a href=”https://twitter.com/rjbclayton/status/953640523914412033?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>17 janvier 2018</a></blockquote>
Lucky us TESLA will save the planet, will save us!
So, should you still wonder what will be the 2018 highlights, seems greener cyber risk will be on the plate in the 12 months to come. Or did I miss something?
Have a nice green day, have a nice digital reading of this report.