skilled digital master

Good day,

lovely, Bdi is today showing back some green and are on average at +10pt, thanks only to the Capes gaining +69points. Nothing enough to open up the champagne bottle in owners’ offices.

As you can find in Bmti’s today report, fact that period business is back on the plate, is a good sign showing Owners willing to try to put their ships in capable hands to avoid the periodic stress of making decisions on what to do with the ships and where to send them. It also shows operators and big players believe some good bargain are to be made. After a nice autumn, until now in the East, Owners open there finding themselves bit stucked with not enough activity to maintain decent levels.

your readings for the week-end.

  • Timing is often said to be one of the key drivers in chartering. Nothing related, at first sight, with shipping, but an interesting information was found here yesterday evening. About Japanese train company, sending their deepest apologizes to their consumers, because their train left the station 20 seconds earlier (yes you read well, 20 seconds too early) than scheduled! below or attached)
  • 2020 Sulphur emission limits. -no exceptions. Rules for Ships complying with IMO… Possible detention & non-compliant ships could be considered as unseaworthy by 2020 (tomorrow at the scale of shipping), see more here
  • while Tesla launching is electrical truck, China is seeing at sea full electrical ship 2,000dwt to start with here charging 2hours = 80 km autonomy
  • finally, before autonomous ships which might not be for tomorrow, maybe be Digital skilled Masters will be the next big thing. and if this digital Master can do backwards jumps anytime before signing clean bills of lading, then it will be the cherry on the cake.

https://twitter.com/mrmedina/status/931291808394440706

 

rgds

Jerome

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no change for a change

Not much to add today. What was right yesterday seems to be still in force today. In summary, for a change, not much market change.

In regards to S&P figures, I’m still struggling to understand why very much comparable ships namely

  • Atlantic spirit 33,427dwt built 2007 / Japan/ 4x30t cranes/ Mitsubishi /  sold at $9.8mio to turkish buyers

&

  • Atlantice Treasure 33,401dwt built 2008/Japan/4×30.7 cranes/ Mitsubishi / open hatch box shaped holds sold $10.4mio to greek buyers

Why $600,000 difference on their selling prices ? Is it the 1 year depreciation only ?

Same question on

  • IVS Ittiwake 32,555dwt built 2007 / japan / 4×30.5 crains /Mitsubishi sold $9.0mio to Greeks buyers

&

  • Olympia IV 32,029dwt built 2008 / japan / 4x30t cranes / Mitsubishi sold to someone at $9.8mio

selling prices showing $800,000 difference when ships are (on the paper) very much comparable. Is it the price for confidentiality?

 

you’re color-blind. Don’t worry I’m here to help you reading shipping market

After some bullish comments on the market made yesterday by BMTI correspondants (remember brokers being confident about the global world economic growth), today the comments are more bearish. « limited number of reported BDI fixtures » / « end of the year traditional rush is behind us » / « lack of attractive business » and so on.

I won’t learn you anything, to make up your own opinion about the market you have to read various reports, get your ears and eyes everywhere, discuss with your preferred brokers (just in case our landline +33 1 30 09 …. (I’m not crazy, I don’t want robots calls, contact me here or on twitter @jeromesorrel or linkedin or Tinder to have my details) this on the daily basis and the feeling you have on Monday can be confirmed and denied on the next Wednesday.

Facts are BDI are getting down, BDI, is back below 1,400points today, back then to the level we were seeing one month ago. Even color-blind players will take not much risk while checking the whole indexes proposed today, they are (almost all) in red. If you’re really color-blind, then sorry but you can’t apply for the jet pilot job, and to help you overcome this little disease, I can tell you only HS3/HS4 and HS6 are in green. A pale green we have to admit. Pale on the paper only (which please do not print, to save our planet).

If you don’t know whether you’re color-blind or not, easy, check the picture here.

dalton

  • If you see a bull, you’re either color-blind and/or an owners
  • if you see a bear, you’re either color-blind and/or a charterers
  • if you see an elephant, you’re surely a good brokers with a great market vision.

Owners in the Atlantic (except ECSA) are left with little choice than getting into firm negotiation with charterers eventhough, at first sight, they believed the « freight ideas » were « stupidly low ».

Talking about ECSA, when China was the center of the world not that long ago, on the handies, the grain activity is strong enough to bring a fairly bullish activity, with all major grains players after the same ships. Grains players having all the same requirements (either coastal to brazil or trans-atlantic to Wmed), owners can play with charterers (and sometimes brokers)’s nerves. Proposing their ship(s) to the best offer… for once, the BOFFER is not exactly what charterers have in mind while quoting their cargoes.

Will this last ? I don’t know, ask to experts !

For sure, as always, when an area is performing in a much better way than the others, the race for all owners being open with their ships there starting. But heading to ECSA (mainly the only hot spot) is not the « girl next door » and 15 days or so for ballasting shall at least keep the local market strong for the days to come.

To conclude this today’s report, again yesterday, comments about a gloomy/lovely strong economic growth will bring sun to shipping. You can read this document about china « fear of glut commodity ».

Have a nice evening

Rgds

Jerome the Ophtalmo.

 

 

short and sweet for today

All you need* is « convinced brokers about market to regain strengh shortly ». To my opinion, unlike the argument given in BMTI stating, according to brokers, the shipping market shall strengthen shortly thanks to « general favorable world economic conditions » is bit of a short analysis.

*alternatively all you don’t need depending where is your chair in the chartering game. Owners or charterers. If you’re both, I let you buy the aspirin and manage your schizophrenic job.

aspirin

Regards

Jerome

never to early to make some assessments

Good day

I’m still wondering how a market report sent at about 5.00Am London time today, can full of confidence declare “”the revival that coloured Capesize freight at the end of last week seems to have cooled off by the start of this week[…]”. Yes, 5:00 AM here is still around mid day in Singapore but are few hours still enough to assess on a market change? Let’s believe BMTI people are very well connected and know what they’re talking about. If we have a look at today BCI,  on average, we can assume their assumptions were the right ones.

BDI today is not showing any revival and very difficult to find out some Green in BDI’s indexes. As often, when market’s going down again, the usual “over supply of tonnage” is back on the table, which, unless I missed something in October/beg November, was still the case. You have access to some interesting datas on the greeks owners activity on S&P, and how Greek Owners are performing in this newbuildings/ Second hands ships market.

On the handies, taking the us$ 37.50 pmt mentionned by BMTI on a 30,000mt wheat from Plate to Algeria, on the basis of usual terms, ie 7,000satnoonex / 2,500th sat58amex, are giving something like $13,750 dely recalada on index 38kdwt. When the $34pmt mentionned in this BMTI is leading to daily equivalent at $11,600 or so.

Back on the Capes, the ones reading the futures, shall show some concernes about the expected daily value of their ships. November said “US $ 21,000” when January it’s only “US $ 13,000”. Other sizes are in the decline but not as drastically as the Capers.

On the commodity for those who were sleeping in the last months, you can still have a look on the Russian Wheat performance… and then once this one is read, we can therefore wonder why the Black Sea chartering market has not managed to be stronger yet. From another point of view, Russian Wheat is the big winner of the global warming but we can wonder, what’s the point about producing millions of agri food if there isn’t any body left to buy and eat the bread. And if you don’t read french, well what a mistake!

 

have a nice evening/afternoon

rgds

Jerome

Roll the dice or have faith in your opinion

Bit short of time to make a nice and funky market report today. Of course you can read the BMTI report, as always, nice and full of info. You can check today’s bdi index, you can also have a good summary of the week about to end in few hours here by reading Baltic Briefing Bulk report for week 45

If you’re lazy, in nutshell :

  • Capes : Wondering if any one doing Capes reading in Copy ?
  • Panamax : « the market has slowed and rates have softened everywhere»
  • Supramax : « Both basins this week have struggled, with most routes under downward pressure. The only exceptions being from the US Gulf which saw positive gains ».
  • Handies : « Once again, another fairly slow week with sentiment lending little support»

 The above comments are not mine, but only quote/unquote from BDI reports.

If, you’re more into,

  • what’s up for next week ?
  • and what shall we expect ?
  • next – week 46?

Here you have the alternative either listen to owners or charterers.

Owners words  are (all saying in atlantic on the handy segment at least) more or less as follow

  • « market has turned up again, don’t rely too much on the indexes, as you know they are always bit late and slow when market is moving the other way, the freight proposal I can (could) offer you today will surely not be here anymore next week».

Or listen to charterers, coming with their market vision, almost as follow

  • « Market is showing strong signs of cooling down. Indexes are dropping, the bunkers rally is about to be over, I’m surrounded by ships keen to offer on my cargo(es), I’ll play it easy and next week, shall be the shooting one ».

As a (good) broker in between, I’m sure obviously both parties are right !

Surely, if all owners on Friday afternoon are keen to shave a bit there freight, it’s giving a sentiment to charterers, waiting a bit more shall drag down the freight even further for next week.

We must not forget on the other side, if all charterers are awaiting for next week to move their next week cargoes, sooner or later the supply of tonnage will be tighter compared to now and as a consequence, this will give Owners the confidence to stop sharpening their pencils and to the contrary remain steady.

Looking like I have summarized the whole shipping cycles in few words ! I can’t remember who were writting down being bit short of time to put down a nice and funky market report ?

Have a nice week-end and don’t forget to roll the dices, shipping is about timing but also from time to time luck.

Lucky you, on Monday morning we’ll make our best, here at Pelagos, to be in front of our computers, right in time

Rgds

Jerome

 

 

 

psssssccccchhhhitttt… is the sound for the end of the party

Yesterday I was doubtful about market players being ready to swallow $19pmt on this rouen to Algeria cargo. Claiming, bunkers prices are still too high to make it worth it for owners, lucky me I was not 100% definitive and wise me I also mentionned about a « shooting window » for grains players to do a bargain. And, yes looking like $19pmt has been done on usual terms, with modern good looking lady. Is it already the end of the party on the Owners side ? are charterers back in the very popular driving seats ? if owners willing to be positive, we can say market taking a breeze to get back stronger but thinking bit forward, when market experts are struggling to find rationals behind a market raise, it often means, there is not much any rationals and sooner or later the correction shall be expected. Having a look at ECSA market, interesting to realize, yesterday BDI was mentionning this « Recent » fixture, which in BDI, is the hidden way to say « done last week, at least » with this fixture :

« ‘Lambi’ 2012 33,221 dwt dely Santos mid Nov trip redel west Mediterranean $15,000 daily » (knowing last time the ship was quoted here was on 30th oct, vsl said open douala 5th nov, eta Santos 14th nov.

This to be compared to this fixture heard here done yesterday

« The Alycia 34,018-dwt 2012-built was rumoured to have fixed at a rate in the mid $13,000s delivery Rio Grande for a trip to the Mediterranean »

Of course we can believe Alycia shall have a better intake with probably comparable speed conso. For sake of comparing, taking mv ‘lambi’ as a bss for 31,000 mt agri prods 1sp upr with 6000satnoonshex / Morocco 5,000sshex.

  • At $15,000 daily (so beg october) this is giving voyage equivalent at $33,50.
  • At $13,000 daily, bss same place of delivery, same intake, same voyage, voyage equivalent is at $31,00.

And remember, early october for similar buisness, with quite comparable ships, $17,000 was market value.

  • At $17,000 (without adjusting bunkers prices at that time), Lambi would give on voyage basis $36,00 pmt

Party could also be over on the bunkers and oil. After a raise, up to 40% since july this year, many market specialists expecting the rally to be over, with US production going up. Brave Prince of Saudia fighting against corruption might not be enough. At least Prince will not feel too lonely in his fight, MACN claiming to have reach a nice new regulation to modernise inspection for dry cargo in Argentina and « increase efficiency of port Clearances » (there).

more details in this MACN document (and if you’re still wondering what MACN standing for, you’ll also have the reply in). This shall be some good news for shipping industry and if MACN do not know what to do next, they can go to Saudi Arabia, where, according to Bloomberg (and saudi officials),see here, « at least  $100Billion misused Over Decades ».

In the Olympic games of Corruption and flying away money, you also can find rice being involved according to Nigeria Agri Minister

Have a nice evening, watching at sports on tv maybe, and stop wondering which referee has been bribed, it’s useless and be prepared to say goodbye to this 1967 built ship who’s going to be dismantled in Lithuania, unless this ‘Alexandra S’ is going to be the key attraction in the Lithuanian Maritime Museum. Dear Alexandra s, 50 year old is a nice age for a ship to say goodbye. Thanks for your hard work throughtout these long years and now Alexandra S, get the hell out of there!

this is how in 1967 shipbrokers were showing up at their office. uncorruptibles at that time.

1967 brokers

Regards

Jerome