is black sea colour really black?

The black sea revival on the supras and bigger ladies mentionned yesterday is looking like to be quite concrete. Mainly these grains cargoes are heading to FEAST / ASIA and despite few may believe this upward will sooner or later impact also the handies, I am, bit more doubtful. Right now too many handies are around (a), these stems to PACIFIC are not suitable for handies (b), the handies stems to Med or Atlantic are not strong enough (c) to bring the good news for the owners open locally. Of course this is only my opinion and feeling on the market and to be bit more balanced, Black Sea grain chartering market used to be control by 2-3 big trading houses which were doing their outmost to keep market down. The cards have been redistributed lately in Black Sea and with quite few « Tycoons » -if I may say so- coming in, this local market is less under control from the big guys. This could be a good news for Owners open there, taking advantage of the battle. Also, not too long ago (2016 if I recall right), in few weeks, the handy local market went up by 20/25% within few weeks through July/August monthes.

Right now, state of the market is, 32.5kdwt getting $6,000 dely Constanza for an intermed biz. For sake of running the estimation, Constanza to Tarragona, with 30,000 5pct wheat and 6kx/8kx this is leading to somewhere around $13.25/13.70 pmt on the freight (sub intake and usual little things which impact up or down the result).

In case you’re wondering why the drybulk shipping market is… where it is…

net change

finally to the question about the colour of the Black Sea, let me reply it all depends on the colours of the sky and clouds
black searegards

Jerome

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