work hard train hard

If shipping market were in very good shape, with no difficulties it would  be stronger than any of his own excuses.

Shipping market being not in Athletic nor Olympic shape, all excuses are good to try to explain why, so far, the results of 2018 are below expectations. Beginning of January it was “hang over after the new years eve and the very good 2017 Q4” which was proposed to explain why January was deceptive. Followed in February by “China Golden week” held end Februrary, which of course slowed down shipping market from mid feb to beg March.
March, yes, not too much excuses could be found, until market players realized Easter time was very early April, and the following week for the Orthodox part of the world.
We are now heading in the last 10 days of April and guess what’s coming next? May with international labor day in many countries accross the  world, so easy to expect very quiet time on the market from Friday 27th April until Wednesday 2nd May. If not quiet, as expert would say we may face a “technical market” the nice way to say “opportunity rather than rational will be the decision makers from either owners or charterers”. Is that it? no, of course not, another good excuse is to realize Mueslim Holy month is starting in about 4 weeks, from around 16th May to around 16th June. We can therefore expect a slow down of importing/exporting movements during this month. As if the official calendar were not enough to bring good excuses to the shipping market, we can count on the leaders of our
lovely word to put some spice when not really needed. this was done beginning of Ap ril with the official kick off (through twitter it’s a better way to communicate) for the trading War, which I would not call Trading mess. Should you wonder about the effect of the Chinese reaction on the American Sorghum on Mr Trump’s Tariff, you can have a first see here

Yes, shipping is very often involved in any big political decisions, higher bunker prices will also impact the shipping and chartering market. The main question is, will owners be able to fully charge the bunkers prices differences to their charterers. I honestly don’t think so, shipping market as to train harder and show bigger muscles. Talking about bunkers, the increase in the last few weeks/months is impressive and surely not helping owners on the spot basis. A nice review here below on banks (they are the experts) on the evolution of the oil prices in the weeks to come is proposed

Yesterday we were talking about capers, and LDA, exiting this spot market. A deeper analysis on this decision is proposed here, exit– this way

But don’t worry, as far as I can see, nothing in the calendar is expected from 19th to 25th May, don’t miss the  shooting window and while waiting for this perfect timing, inviting you to train as hard as you can to boost this chartering market. And Happy Birthday to one of you reading this report

rgds

Jerome

 

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