old fashioned is not only a cocktail but can also be a sort of panic in #shipping

« Glad to welcome the good old fashion Panic » As a friend owners said yesterday while hearing about the ultramax being covered at « low $20,000 for a trip from North Spain to China ». According to market comments and index, the panic on the Capers did not last long enough to sustain index and fixtures done on the upward trend.

But Supras and handies are getting somehow nuts…

In a today’s report, we can read, « brokers having very little information to share », the conclusion is therefore « a slow end to the week »… I would have another analysis, « brokers having lot of firm cargoes/ships on their plate they don’t have much time for sharing their infos » as, as mentionned earlier this week, brokers get their money from the fixtures done, rarely from the market information they share to market analysts. Brokers would be paid as advisers, consultants they would have to do this piece of work, it’s not the case.

Here an interesting picture on the new building/scrapping ships activity. I’m still trying to figure out on the chart « Recycling destinations » if the author know where is Turkey and China… Probably a mistake done by the authors, too many ships to sell / buy to have time to double check their maps !

And finally, not much talks about Brexit in our shipping adventure this week, this is repaired with the text here from a small broking house

have a nice week-end.

Rgds

Jerome

 

Baltic Index in modernization process.

Good day good afternoon,

Fairly busy beginning of the week here which dragged me of my daily reports and market comments. For sure, I shall not forget, unless any changes, I get my bread out of the fixtures I manage to make, market reports being somehow the extra mile. You’ll have surely noticed, without my input, market keeping going up, BDI yesterday reached his highest level since 11th nov 2014. The Handies, still have to make some gains to reach his highest since nov 2014 mark, as for your records, 605 was reached on 19th dec 2016. Last time BHSI was above 605, need to run back to 3 years ago, ie April 2014. Today’s standing at 538. Looking at fixtures done and reported, all areas of loading seems to be somehow fairly strong for this size of the ships. USG is the only one showing some decline, which is translated finally in the index (losing today 100pts) and heading below the $10,000 daily mark. On this basis, the fixture of this small handy « Symphony » 23,500dwt passing skaw via baltic redel USEC at $7,900 is still looking like a decent number for charterers. And unlike usual statement, USG shall not be in the short run the right repositioning for owners looking after money. Same being in force, until, owners not willing to go there anymore and therefore creating an unbalanced market with tonnage demand above tonnage supply.

ECSA grain season is not over, quite few wheat handies stem gone and understood quite few others remains to be covered with April dates. The upward trend in this area seems to be cooling down, eventhough ships getting fixed rather quickly.

Continent the mention of $9,000 daily equivalent (trust aps) seems either very low compare to activity seen there but still not impossible, if owners after a very quick biz.

All in all, whatever the market, whatever the index, if I were a believer I would be tempted to sing « alleluia », or « Hallelujah » for a tribute to Leonard Cohen  Baltic Exchange Index hibernation is over and soon we shall have new market tools to follow the activity and money level. With something likely to be bit more in line with current ships at sea :

  • New routes
  • Amended sizes
    • Panamaxes from 74,000dwt to 82,500dwt
    • Supras from 52,000dwt to 58,328dwt
    • Handies from 28,000dwt to 38,000dwt

Some will regretfully still wonder where is the ultramax segment, or some others will say on the handies, why going to 38,000dwt when the market is flooded with lovely modern handy handies being around 32/34,000dwt ? but surely this process of updating the indexes is a must.

All the details are here  and surely more to come.

Finally, always interesting to read what traders says about freight market. You can read here or here uswheat-freight-

Have a nice afternoon, day and as Jay O’Neill, « hold on to your hats it could be an interesting and bumpy ride ».

Rgds

Jerome

 

need for hot and brave shipowners

In case the info passed over you without you noticed, St Lawrence St Way is back again in business since last Monday (20 march 2017). Don’t believe it’s already like navigating in the Elbe River or Amazonia look at the weather conditions which were registered in Quebec on 15th march. (picture above st law river floods in march 2017 at Quebec) still in needs for hot owners and brave crews (or vice & versa) to face this tough conditions

BMTI offering an interesting summary of the weight of this area (including the Great Lakes), volume of cargo going through these region is said to be likely around 35/40Mt. If you wish to get more information about this area, you can go here  alternatively, you can also ask us, we are happy to say we have some good reliable friends sitting there and will be more than happy to be your transport/service provider from/to this area.

Appart from that, generally speaking sentiment is remaining bullish in most atlantic areas on the handies but USGulf seems to be facing kind of over tonnage supply making freight levels softening quite a bit. This is not perceived on the indexes yet, neither on the fixtures from blsea/med/cont towards USG, ex Canakkale to USG done at $6,200/6,500 daily and to my understanding the daily hire are relatively strong on the HS2 mainly due to demand seen in the loading area rather than because owners anticipating a kind off a cooling down in USG. Still few weeks to go before St Law river will become friendly again and will be considered as free of ice and open for any kind of ships.

Ex Continent and Baltic, fertilizers movement are hoovering somehow the ships from Central Med, leaving to owners open there, the choice to go out for money ex Continent/Baltic or BLSEA. Still bit early to conclude if this is a temporary movement with fertilizers traders in needs for March candidate or if this is going to last longer. Ex Blsea, the grains requirements and fertilizers also shall last also in April.

From ECSA, needs for tonnage is here, with somehow strong rates but the challenge for owners is to find the firm cargoes. We understood spot prompt tonnage fixed and failed twice before finding the right stem. In between owners had to keep same daily hire for a repositionning in WMED when the 1st stem they tried (and failed) was heading towards ARAG.

On the owners’ side,

Marshall Island flag is claiming to become the 2nd most largest country of registry, Liberia used to be the 2nd one (behind Panama) and Marshall Island has been boosted by Chinese and Greek owned tonnage requests. Unfortunately, nothing is mentionned in this article to explain what are the real pros to register his ship in Marshall Islands rather than in Liberia. Sure, it’s probably nicer to have an office in Marshall Islands (rather than in Monrovia (but this remains a subjective opinion)), it’s also a kind of a journey to fly to this destination when you’re sitting in Europe. Checking on RMI website, they provide a list of « advantages to working with the Republic of the Marshall Islands Maritime registery », few of them seems surely to be strategic in owners decision, such like :

  • Inquiries receive prompt responses and owners and operators may communicate directly with the Registry (in 2017 isnt’it a minimum ?)
  • IRI has over 60 yrs of experience administering Maritime and corporate programs. (back to old/good story/difference)

 Compared to Liberia offering « The pre-registration formalities are user friendly » (always better than painful, long and unfriendly formalities right ?), it seems it’s not enough and they need to improve their offer… Come on Liberia, you can do it. Maybe there are few other surprises in the Marshall Islands registery but to be disclosed against firm interest probably.

Have a lovely afternoon, day, week-end and we remain at your disposal, working SShinc, as always, weather permitting only.

Rgds

Jerome

Take the bribe. What about the bride? (your call, on a case by case basis)

Talking about Egypt, grain traders are linked on a 30,000mt bulk wheat from Nikatera to Egypt at said something along US$16pmt. This is surely part of the GASC deals to import massively wheat from everywhere, and preferably from Black Sea. Last tender, cnf priceof the wheat was (rounded) at $210pmt, for 240kmt, with freight, rounded again from $12.40pmt to $15.05pmt sub origin on 60’000mts stems. So, it makes something like a $50million bill for Egyptian authorities. On the other side, main US$ provider for Egypt is the Suez Canal, which Brought « only » $375.8million in Feb ($20million more in January). The $8 billion investments to expand (and double) Suez Capacity are not yet ready to be reimbursed

Back to this Nikatera to Egypt, it’s said to be equal to something along $9,000 daily which seems a decent number for charterers. As we understood Owners now managing to obtain more than $10,000 daily now for dely Canakkale redel Central Med via Blsea.

Few weeks ago we were mentionning you some financial revenue drop from big bulker owners, Cosco (main chinese owners) is reporting profit drop by 29% when they managed to increase their revenue by $200Million in the same period. How come ?

Going the other way of Atlantic, after mentionning this week some nice practice from bunkers suppliers, Tradewinds is today talking about Argentinean corruption in some ports, declaring to get inspected holds clear of any remarks could cost up to $80,000, which seems to go in inspector (and his friends)’ pockets. According to Tradewinds, the problem is not over but situation improving thanks to « collective buying power of shipowners »… this being black money, I’m wondering if the today’s BHSI HS3 10,067 (+109) is taking this into account, or not ?

Have a nice evening, afternoon, and we are still here to try to fix your ship/cargo,. Please bare in mind our commission in such case will be 1.25% and we’ll pay our taxes in our lovely country, helping our French inspectors to make decent salary (and our politicians to pay 50keuros their 15yrs old kids for their great job at Assemblée Nationale / alternatively their wife more than €80’000 yearly for assisting in the daily tasks). But this is another story.

Regards

Jerome

 

 

 

 

who’s leading the tempo in the tango?

 

10years experience, is starting to be somehow something right ? Even in shipping were people love to say

  • « in shipping the learning curve is not comparable to any other business as you keep learning everyday »

or

  • « shipping is like high mountain guide : a good high mountain guide is not existing really, only old ones may count ».

So if you read Bmti’s today report stating « the chartering market is trading on a fertile ground that has been unheard of in the last 9-10 years. »  Does it mean, a shipping guy who has 10 years experience will have to forget all the negotiations skills he managed to pile up in his pocket and start again from scratch?

It’s something like 10 years now that charterers are giving the tempo and leading the waltz. Waltz according to few reports is becoming an argentinean tango with Owners deciding about the timing and the right clause. Surely if the market keeps going this way, some may get caught by surprise with clauses being back into owners’s favor… sshex terms, forget the « ntc eiu » but welcome back the « ntc uu ». Forget about the APS and be prepared to swallow the DOP retro…

in all honesty sure the confidence is back on owners shoulders but the market movement up remaining quite fragile. Even though I would be tempted to say Index are probably bit late compared to physical market, today’s index, Bdi is down back to 1,200, Capers losing 25pts, panamax cooling down a bit and Supras/handies +2, just for the sake of saying we keep moving up.

And reading some market reports, « la vie en Rose » is still not right here… « spasmodic activity for the big ships » / « Ultramax/supramax a quiet day for reported fixtures […] lack of new enquiry putting pressure on the tonnages available » / « handysize : overall a slow day »…

For instance, we were reading yesterday « Pacific Basin Ceo hoping for higher bunker prices, as high bunker prices would mak ships sail slower, which could help reduce overcapacity in the drybulk market »… and looking at bunkers prices, it seems Mats Berglund (PacBasin’s boss) need to improve his influencing skills towards OPEC’s member (or Trump’s administration maybe)…. Or the world according to this chart

opec's influence

when on the other side, we are astonished to realize some bunkers suppliers do not hesitate to syphon tanks while deliverying bunkers.syphonning

Looking for future in shipping, 2030 ? some will say in Copenhagen, ships will be 3d printed.

I told you « La vie en rose » for owners ? maybe tomorrow, but not today.

Regards

Jerome

 

 

Novruz period may lead to a quiet chartering week. or may not.

A « slow start to the week is prevailing everywhere »… which is an expert way to say « I don’t have much to say, I’m sorry». To feed you with a fresh number, ex Blsea, we understood Bunge linked with 30,000-tonnes 10% grains from Tuapse to Morocco at $16.00 with 8,000 tonnes load and 5,000 tonnes discharge.

Don’t worry, tomorrow will see the official kick off for the coming week unless Azerbaijan Novruz Holidays (as per Bimco calendar) willing to spoil the whole shipping week / activity. (for your info, it’s Persian new Year celebration).

So happy Novruz time dear Persian friends

Jerome

fix and drink for free. Shipping promo of the day. Who’s in?

Marketwise a kind of a positive week for owners is ending. BDI raise (+ 110) mainly driven by Capers (+624), when Panamaxes ladies to the contrary losing momentum (-103), Supras stable (-5) and handies showing their capacity of resilience and slowly but firmingly ( ?) above 500 mark (+13). BHSI routes are all on positive trend. HS3 (ecsa to skaw pass) facing difficulties to reach the 10,000 daily despite all fixtures we have seen / heard/ done this week on this route are all with 5 digit numbers. They are also mainly done on 33/35kdwat when handies index types remain on the 20th century’s type, ie 28kdwat ladies.

Despite good efforts from 99.5% of Owners to keep up the momentum, remaining 0.5% are either sleeping (instead of following the market) or for sure they’re doing their best to heavily discount their ships to get the fixture done and proving to charterers somehow it’s always worth to be patient and stick to their initial ideas. Are the same owners the ones investing in new Buildings ? See the chart at the bottom of this article : new buildings back in the loop

In short, source VesselsValue

  • in 2017 close to 55million dwt is said to hit the water
  • when only 3.5million is said to hit the « Bangladesh beaches ».
  • if I’m right more than 51Million dwt shall be at sea by the end of the year
  • in 2018, too early to say how much are sold to scrap, close to 20millions are in the books for new buildings.

In the meantime, according to this article, secondhand bulk prices « have rocketed over the past 13 months » (13 months ago, secondhand ships were really really cheap) and trully investors with pockets plenty of $ shall not have to think for too long whether it’s better pay $22.8m for brand new Kamsarmaxes (82,000dwt) or $14.5m for similar lady but already 8 years old. At least in the new building they’ll be able to choose the colour of the curtains in the master’s cabin aside of making sure the new buildings will be in line with all IMO regulations.

On grain trading, Black sea expected hit in shipping grains for the weeks to come might not be as easy and simple as expected. See bloomberg article here

On Commodity side, Reuters (and so Ameropa)  decided to announce the day before St Patrick’s day (today) the shutting down of their malting barley trading firm Interbrau. last order please This is what we call good timing… knowing today’s being a kind of a day for beer sellers (and beer drinkers), check out few facts here

Have a nice afternoon, day. And few pints of Guinness on my account if we manage to fix today (even next Monday is fine – I know I’m crazy)

Regards

Jerome