fool me once…

« sometime you have to accept not to understand », is not only the new Motto for all the polls institutions and medias who are still wondering what they have missed earlier this month with the election of Trump. Trust we can apply this motto to chartering people also. Really what a relief here to read in market report « A true rally is underway and analysts only partially seem to understand why »

Discussing with various friends and business contacts here, answers remain elusive on this question « why this rally is occuring ? » Sometime, let’s say it’s not that important to understand what’s going on and I can honestly add, I’m quite happy to read « analysts only partially seems to understand why » as, here, we are also quite surprised about the sudden upward movement.

See the example of Dryships movement on the stock market (NASDAQ)

  • On 9th nov value for 1 share  at US$ 5.10
  • On 11th nov value for 1 share at US$ 13.60
  • On 14th nov value for 1 share at US$ 42.86
  • On 15th nov value for 1 share at US$ 73.00
  • On 17th nov value for 1 share at US$ 11.00

 

See the Capesizes, they

  • started this week at 2’338pts with average weighted TC value at US$16’526
  • are today at 2’752pts and US$19’364.

We can almost do the same exercice on all the sizes and all are on the upward movement.

See the Black Sea.

  • We heard COFCO at US $14.75 pmt is likely to be for this trade « 30,000 MT 10% CORN  NIKOLAEV TO 1SP EGYPTMED 10,000 SHINC / 5000 SHEX (THUR NOON-SUN 8) 27 NOV – 2 DEC » running the tce, bss dely Canakkale, something along the US$ 9’500/10’000 daily seems to be the level.

See the ECSA

  • we read 30’000mt grains from Plate to Algeria climbing from usd25pmt to usd30pmt, converted into Time charter equivalent, bss San Lorenzo 6’000satnoon / 2’500tfhex on a modern 33’000dwt loading 30’000mt is leading from Dely recalada from US$ 7’300 to US$ 10’150.

Trust most of Owners and shipping people are looking forward to put 2016 behind us and getting prepared for 2017, if this upward movement is confirmed for the whole december, 2017 might be promising…

In between, should you need a hand to fix your great cargo/ship with a great ship/cargo, don’t hesitate to call a great broker. You know where to find me right?

Regards

Advertisements

Digital, one way to get out of shipping crisis?

« Road to recovery »… are we on this road ? Bdi over 1’000points, long time ago the indexes did not reach this level. 19th aug 2015 is last time BDI was a 4 digits number. Yes the Capers are pretty well helping the way up, almost 300pts on last Friday, heading to 2303. Capers seems to be taking a little break now.

We can feel on the handies bit more of activity all around, (still hoping BHSI to reach above 500pts in 2016). Black Sea seems to be confirming being bit down (Does the Russian wheat price being up having an impact on this slow down ?) . Continent / Baltic is rather strong with cargoes coming out quicker than ships can sail. Quite few ones being destination USG, which is likely to be a good repositionning – in which case handies owners talking $6’500/7’000 passing skaw – or trip to SEASIA/FEAST which is also a rather good way for Owners to go after the money as above $10’000 daily dop arag seems to be obtainable.

USG, is the place to be nowadays. HS4 (USG to Skaw Passero) still on the way up, above 8’000usd daily, we got the info a modern 39kdwt being fixed from Guyana dop to Black Sea in the mid $8’000. On the bigger ladies, Ultramax USG to China (trust via Panama canal), owners obtaining more than $15’000, when similar lady from East Coast Mexico, to same destination (ie China), is worth $15’000 daily. From USG to East Med with grains, Ultramaxes owners still managing to get DOP deal in the middish $13’000 daily. Knowing the S4A (USG to Skaw Passero) is today at $12’000 and gaining more than $200 today. Handy HS3 (Ecsa to Skaw Pass) is gaining again bit of momentum, at least on the index. Coastal biz on 10 years old handy is being said being done in the $6’000 daily. Handymax doing corn from Argentina to Bejaia is apparently covered @ equivalent to $10’000 daily.

Are you wondering what’s going on on the period ? Be happy, Baltic Index dtd yesterday, was mentionning, panamax index type being covered at or close to $7’500 daily dely Feast redel WW. Same on Ultramax, Noble fixing at $7’150 daily on couple of ladies for something like 1year period.

Appart from that ?:

  • Donald J Trump is the next president being elected in USA (in case you missed this info, one never know)
  • Iron Ore price was up by 27% last week, now dropping by 11%
  • Willing to remain on top on Steel word info, read this one steel in china

 

Road to recovery ? Bis.

Where is the entrance please ? Willing to know how to adress the shipping crisis ? then don’t read this one,  please don’t read it . I did read it, with full of hope, to find out the missing replies. The title was promising  « WHAT WILL SAVE THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY’ 9 INDUSTRY THOUGHT LEADERS WEIGH IN », but unfortunately the solutions proposed are either well known by all of us (I guess) or creative but not really pragmatic, in short with my comments in the () :

  1. Scrap more ships (who’s starting first ?)
  2. Stop ordering new ships (otherwise scrapping is useless see above)
  3. Invest in digital solutions (invest first then be able to cut operating costs)
  4. Install a gym room onboard (and wifi please)
  5. Change your fueling set up on your ships (invest millions then)
  6. Use modern technology (put your telex to the bin)
  7. Make your clients happy (this will surely adress the crisis)
  8. Be optimistic (you won’t see the crisis with the same upsetted eyes)
  9. Believe in the One Belt One Road chinese initiative (why not ?)

If you don’t believe my summary is what’s proposed by the 9 Industry’s top leaders, you can still check here again.I told you, not worth to read

all in all I find it bit worrying to read -9 top players in our Industry- proposals to make shipping great again. I would be tempted to add a 10th proposal

10. « let’s fix ».

For this you know how to get in touch with us right ?

Jerome

 

ammonia might be the future for eco friendly ships… (it’s also a music band but nothing related to shipping I’m afraid)

Good day Good afternoon,

Very quiet day on the freight market, few countries are off, like France, but this shall not be enough to explain this quietness. (Well, note USA are also taking a break). One particular comment raised our intention in yesterday’s BMTI report, if you did not go through it, then you did not notice it, here it is :

« Grains origin ex USG expected to be huge as of beg January into Brazil to compensate the likely poor wheat harvest in Brazil, (freight ex) USG shall remain strong in the months to come » on which I may add « unless all ships at sea heading to USG to take their piece of the pie. »

A quick look at today’s BDI, mv ‘Amorgos’ 36kdwat open Norfolk (USEC) is said being fixed at $9’250 daily, dely Norfolk redel Med. It seems to be a rather good fixture for Owners compared to HS4. On the larger ladies, from them area, or so, Ultramax tiger Pioneer is reported being fixed dely SW Pass end nov to china at $ 15’750usd daily. Knowing the ship was circulated being spot in Bahamas, this $15’750 daily looking bit less bright, if we add the something like 15 days waiting before being delivered to the next charterers.

For those of you interested in “alternative fuel eco friendly” you can find here some pros  cons about Ammonia to fuel our ships IMAREST. Until now, the energy to move our ships is mainly coming from oil. So far OPEC members did not manage to find a deal on how to cut production down, to make prices going up. Brent in London at $45.84 and bunkers are getting cheaper. Will opec’s brains find a solution to their issues on Nov 30th in Vienna ?

Going through various market reports and shipping news, all are trying to assess and guess which will be the impact on shipping with Donald J Trump election. It’s surely too early to say and with all due respect to USA, whichever the next president, ships will remain at sea, and we shall not forget, we’ve been told in the last 2 decades China is the main market driver for shipping industry…out of a sudden, the market driver moved to the other side of the World ? I don’t think so.

To end up today’s report as Lenard Cohen’s said about Suzanne « all men will be sailors then until the sea shall free them » . That’s how it goes  suzanne  or everybody knows

Jerome

and now, what’s the next plan?

Well, he did it, couple of months ahead of him to put in place his strategy and actions plan to « Make America Great Again ». Maybe we shall think about finding solutions to « Make Shipping Great Again ». (If the statement that America and Shipping happened not to be great lately). We’ll have full of time to see how the trading markets will react to this new american set up. Surely it will have some impacts, as we were reading yesterday the comment made by John Faraclas with his daily market comments www.allaboutshipping.co.uk:  «As you all know we value the effect of the Geopolitical happenings as same completely change everything and influence the shipping trade and the maritime adventure in its entirety. until this moment covered – MIGRANTS, BREXIT, Syrian saga, ISIS, Greece and Europe, the Turkish aggression all over the Eastern Med… as well as the Chinese and other world events remain at the forefront! »

On the spot market, focusing on the Capers, going again close to the 2’000 mark. In 2 days, they gain more than 300 points, volatility on the capers to be compared with rather flattish movements on other sizes. Few fixtures/comments gathered here and there  have raised our attention

  • « from black sea major grain charterers quickly fixed 35’000mt from Ilichevsk to the Spanish Med at just below $12pmt, which equates to about $9’000 dely canakkale », Running some tce here basis 8’000x bends $12pmt is close to $8’200/8’300 on modern Handymax
  • « 25’000mt from Odessa to Venice being discussed along the lines at $12/12.50 bss free Da’s at dischport »  basis 6000x / 5000x and free da’s at disch, $12usdpmt giving on index type something in the $7’500/8’000 depending if we talk 25000 min max of 25’000 + 10% tolerance
  • « USG 27’000mt wheat cargo was put on the market to morocco at $21/22pmt, which is roughly the tce Of $9’000 daily »… sorry but this does not match according to us. Bss Houston to morocco with 8000x/5000x 32’ at disch  either charterers aiming to pay $21/22pmt, in which case the tce is worth around $7’500 , or we say « They are seeing $9’000 daily », therefore the voyage equivalent shall be around $23.50 pmt. Fact is, HS4 is today at $7’625 converted  into voyage equivalent, on such basis, getting us to $21.50pmt
  • Handy owners open in FEAST/ASIA seems to be performing better than supras open in the same area.

Wishing you a great day and great evening again, which is a starter.

Jerome

In land logistic impact shipping

 

What the point to have the biggest crop ever available for export if the cargo can’t reach the ports?

Worth to keep an eye in black sea was yesterday’s advice. Turkey political uncertainty have not gone away for sure, we were also reading supplying bunker in the area might become a challenge in the week to come due to apparently local fairly bad weather. Read here platts bunker report for those of you planning to do some cheap bunker in Novorrossisk, you need to make your own maths whether it’s better to wait or go away to book a bunker stem without delay. Also, Ukrain is proudly announcing since July  « grain harvest records and millions of tons to be exported ». Ukrainian authorities just forgot to wonder how to move grains from the land to the port silos. See here what’s reported by reuters here ukrainian logistic.

Going through BMTI, reading « off continent steel charterers have been rating 36kdwt in the low $5’000 daily for trip to ECSA », hard to believe owners will jump on these « low 5 » but fairly sure, owners are in the low $6’000 to start discussion. Ex « Santos to Tunisia, 34’000mt of sugar, charterers being proposed 16.50usdpmt » seems to us very sharp, the only way to make it relevant to the current market (something in the mid 6’000 daily)  is to run the estimates, bss 6000satnoonex /4000sshex and we don’t take into account the draft restriction in Tunisia.

Finally in Bmti, today’s a mention on promotional programs tried to be set up by Canal authorities,

  • AMP (Panama) offering environemental premium ranking for instance
  • Suez Canal authorities offering a 3% discount if carriers agree to make payments in advance for 3-5 years (for info Suez tolls for Maersk, MSG a,d CMA GCM is accounting for something close to USD 1.5Billion/year.

I was mentionning this back on 18th october 2016, see here Canal promotion. Keep things simple and I’m still failing to understand the way AMP or Egypt Authorities are thinking. You’re surely cleverer than me, and so the canals authorities

Anyway, in case you’re aiming for a simple fixture, to fit with my simple brain, please do not hesitate to contact us. If it’s a complex fixture, Pelagos will put all his market intelligence in it (namely Jean-Charles), if your voyage needs to go through Suez or Panama (or both!), let’s try to secure a bargain.

 

 

 

atlantic handies turning point? Black Sea needs bit of attention

Good day,

Today’s Baltic Index report is showing :

Done on 1 tct

  • ‘Ugo De Carlini’ 2010 176’153 dwt dely CJK mid Nov tct via EC Australia redel China $8,250 daily
  • ‘Anangel Transporter’ 2010 179’719 dwt dely Rotterdam 10/15 Nov trip via PDM to Fos $14,500 daily

Last Thursday we were reported these fixtures

  • ‘Anangel Hope’ 2015 179’445 dwt dely Flushing 06 /08 Nov trip via Baltimo reredel India $18,000 daily
  • ‘Nightkiss’ 2015 179’354 dwt dely CJK 06/08 Nov trip via Australia option Brazil redel Singapore-Japan $10,500 daily

Then in today’s report done on 12 months period

  • Tom Selmer’ 2011 175’219 dwt dely CJK 05/07 Nov 12 months trading redel worldwide approx. $8,000 daily

Owners of TOM SELMER are surely happy to have secured a 3Million USD deal on her, knowing same (based in Cyprus) owners are dealing with 10 ships 5 supras, 5 capers. Meantime, just for the purpose of running figures,

  • @ agreed rate (let say $8’000 daily) : 1 year revenue is at $2’920’000
  • @ today’s weighted value, $10’733 daily : 1 year revenue is at $3’917’545
  • @ 3rd nov weighted value, $9’893 daily : 1 year revenue is at $3’610’945

We can all appreciate a one year period is worth a discount for the charterers, difficult to assess if the discount shall be worth $1million usd or more or less. Let’s believe both owners and charterers are happy with this deal.

Jumping directly on the smaller sisters, ie the handies, interesting to have a look on the index again, Skaw passero origin (HS1 HS2) are remaining on the upward trend while origin ex USG or ECSA (HS3 and HS4) are now showing some signals of cooling down. Converted into next shipments, it probably means Continent/ Baltic/ Blsea origin will remain relatively strong. We are not seeing too many grains shipments from Baltic or continent. Discussing with owners, they’re seeing above $6000 ex baltic to USEC on fertilizers on 35+dwat ladies.

Ex Black Sea, identified as being grains, we can see quite few requirements such like

  • supra/ultra del black sea ppt onw tct with grains redel india/bdesh rnge
  • 28/32KDWAT DELY CONSTANTZA 13/17 NOV 1TCT WHEAT REDEL CENTRAL MED
  • supra-ultra dely Bl.Sea 18-22 nov tct redly A-R-A-G
  • NIKO (Ukraine) / SALALAH (Oman) 000/10 CORN – 8.000 / 4.000 – 1 DEC ONW
  • 52-64K DELY TO MAKE 1 SP UKRAINE 14TH NOV ONWARD TCT INT GRAIN TO FEAST
  • 1 tct trip via Bsea Dely Bsea/Canakkle/Emed cgo-grains rdly PG pico (excl I/I) Spot prompt

 

Ex ECSA, handy shipment for month end are in line with the index, when we could have expected the figures to keep moving up, on tbn basis charterers looking for grains ex ecsa to Wmed are proposed 2-3 usd pmt below the previous done (1 week ago). I still believe the timing for fixing will be key for charterers to avoid being caught with no more tonnage able to tender nor before the 30th of November. The fixture of mv ‘Nord Auckland’ 37kdwt blt 2011 from Rio Grande to Skaw Med at $7’000 is clearly showing this colling down movement.

On the shipping side, you have probably seen this info http://splash247.com/carisbrooke-nova-marine-consolidate-shipmanagement-lugano/, and we shall all get used to merging movements on the owners side.

Reading few reports, Turkey is under cautious watch from the market analysts. “ beware of a likely civil war (in Turkey) ». You can also find some more here  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-06/amundi-sees-turkey-turmoil-worsening-as-markets-go-into-nosedive and for sure we shall not forget, Turkey is a major player in the shipping world, this is the entrance/exit door to black Sea, this country also have many owners playing in our segment, and Turkey is an important drybulk commodity importer/exporter. Uncertainty in this Country will surely have an impact on the local market, as off now, I would bet Owners who are always very cautious when it comes to political movements, will raise up their ideas for trading in this area.

What about USA ? let’s see tomorrow.

Have a nice evening

Rgds

Jerome

“what do you think about the market?”

Shall we talk a bit about the handy market to start with? yes sure, as mentionned in the report attached (or info gathered here and there), to give you some guidance :

  • Ex CONT BALTIC
    • 38’000dwt done at $7’000 daily for a quick Baltic to continent trip
    • 38’000dwt open continent discussed at or so $11’000 for trip to East (fertilisers to India ?)
    • Scrap charterers offering $8000 daily on a 32’000dwt ship open Uk to end up in EMED
  • Ex BLSEA,
    • 38’000dwt talking $7’000 for a trip to USG
    • 34’000dwt ex blsea to tunisia is gone at $9250 (surely with grains)
  • Ex ECSA
    • 33’000dwt fixed and failed at $7’000 daily for a trip to med.
    • 39’000dwt gone at $10’000 daily + $165’000 bb dely paranagua redel Djibouti
  • USG
    • 34’000-dwt ex USG gone to SAFR $9,000 daily.
  • WAFR
    • 34kdwat modern open abidjan done aps Conakry to blsea in the $4’000 daily
  • ASIA
    • 34’000dwt dely surabaya to India with logs gone at $6’400 daily

Inviting you also to read in the Bmti the page 2 and 3 with the « global system thinking » (for the lucky subscribers). It reminds me Opec meeting and the prisonner’s dilemma : at the end, at the end everyone will choose the best for themselves, see also here.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/opec-decision-making-game-theory-approach-lead-adam-ritchie

Now this being covered, let’s talk about important things: EISBEIN.

Below few tips to survive to Eisbein (or in general -to shipping events-) or the do’s and the don’t in cocktails or how to handle THE question :

« What do you think about the market ? »

Here you go, you’ve been waiting for this particular time of the year for ages (12 months which seemed to you being like a century) and it’s NOW, the Eisbein week.

You spent days and days planning your agenda once there.

  • Meet Paul,
  • meet Patrick
  • don’t forget Fiona
  • what about Oliver and Jan
  • Pay a visit to A1brokerage

On average you have 10 planned meeting per day, either formal or unformal -you know your Company is making lots of sacrifices to send you there, to be The representative. You don’t want to disappoint anybody, furthermore, you’ve been in the business for 3 years, and the only business trip you’ve made was to walk to the grocery the other side of the street as the office were running out of coffee.

Slim suit, white shirt, red tie (to look like Trump), bit of Pento (to look like Henry Winkler), business cards in the left pocket of your jacket (the right one ? is dedicated to the business cards you’re collecting), bit of cash…you’re ready and now it’s time to shine, if you can.

Pretty quickly (basically at your first appointment, on which you arrived 30 min later than scheduled), you’ll realize your planning will simply not match and you won’t be able to make all of them.

Two options :

Option 1 : get stressed, start to apologize about being late, refuse the beer proposed by your host (yes in Hamburg (or any shipping events), at 9.30am, you get proposed a beer), wrap up quickly this meeting and rush to your second one, which is the opposite side of the city, bother the ladies in the office, asking for a cab (until you realize, the lady, is the boss).

Option 2 : enjoy the beer, ask for a 2nd one, take your time to discuss with your mates, take advantage of being here to introduce yourself to other fellows coming in and send discretly a text message to your second meeting, that you won’t be able to make it. But no big deal, tell him « we’ll catch up at Elysee tonight ».

If you’re not too shy, by now, it’s already 11.00am, you should have collected something like 24/25 new business cards. You can sort them in 3 categories

  1. The ones you were looking for
  2. The good surprising ones (you were not expecting to meet Bruno, but he is here)
  3. The « who the hell is this guy again? and please remind me what’s his activity in shipping ? »

Here again you have various option on how to deal with these business cards. For sure, whenever you’re facing this little and cute ceremonial consisting in exchanging business cards, you have to pay attention at least for 5 seconds on the document which has just landed in your hands. (Note 1/ these five seconds have to become 2 minutes if your new friend is from Asia (and don’t forget to gently bend over once or twice), note 2 these five seconds can also become 30/45 seconds (or so) if your new friend is blond with a nice dress (in this case, absolute max is 45seconds to screen her business card, you don’t want to be perceived as the french pervert of the industry, do you ?) What if she’s blond and from Asia ? Come on don’t be moron, everybody know asiatics have brown hairs.

So, how to deal with the business cards ?

For sure don’t sort them on site. Wait to be at your hotel room, while doing your « daily report remotely to your boss » to file them and why not put some comments on each of them with your Mont-Blanc. Keep these cards in your room and make sure you bring them all back to the office. Your boss will evaluate how successful was your Eisbein trip by checking how many business cards you brought back.

What you should talk about during these cocktails and parties ?

Sooner or later, you’ll get questionned this tricky question and you’ll have no way to escape.

-« So, what do you think about the market ? ».

Back in 2007, it was an easy question, you just had to reply « Market is crazy » and you were gone with this one. Almost 10 years after, you can still try to reply « Market is crazy » but afraid it won’t be enough. And I think there is not only one suitable answer. You need to have defined in advance your strategy and your replies, which will vary depending on who’s asking you this question. In summary I think you have 4 scenarii in front of you.

  1. The question is asked by an Owners : in this case, you have to show full empathy, complain about the poor rates, complain about other Owners not scrapping enough their ships and then you also shall do just enough of show off, saying that luckily you have been working hard in the last years to secure direct, exclusive niche charterers and thanks to this hard work and great network you managed to make up your way. You shall conclude, « whichever the market, together we’ll be stronger… » the day after your Company shall be added in the circular position list from the Owners.
  2. The question is asked by a charterers : in this case, you can have a laugh about the market situation, tell him you see no recovery in the next years BUT still (and take a scary face) a full recovery does not mean he is safe all year long. He shall be careful about seasonality, about bunkers up and down, about the new IMO’s rule (drop some acronyms specific to Shipping, he will be impressed) and he shall make sure to have the right network to remain on the safe side. Conclude by whispering him, you, your side, you have a great network of supportive owners, niche and reliable ones, conclude with « whichever the market, together we’ll be stronger… » If you’re not that bad, the day after, your company shall be part of this charterers panel.
  3. The question is asked by one of your competitors : remain evasive and short in your reply, do some name dropping, to show how well connected you are. But of course don’t disclose any of the names of your lovely niche exclusive principals. Conclude with « sorry, I have to take up this phone call, I’m on a COA which I’m just about to finalize » (Most important point here is to make your competitor feel like a losy guy).
  4. You’re in a group of various people, you don’t really know who’s who, then say nothing, unless the question is specifically asked to you. In which case say something which is obvious and ending with a question mark like « it’s been as it is for too long, when will we see the change ? » and while putting down the question on the table, look at the sharp guy, the one with the Hermes tie and big golden chronograph. Be sure, he’ll be so happy to share with you all all his thoughts about market and what’s to be done to adress the situation. you’re at the beginning of the 10 most boring minutes of your business trip. But this is part of the deal. A 10 minutes monolog, with your sharp shipping expert of the day. However remain attentive, his talks might help you when you’ll be ask the same question at your next cocktail party.

Sooner or later, you’ll also be asked some other strategic questions, namely :

  • « when did you arrive ? »
  • « in which hotel do you stay ? »
  • « How did you come in ? »
  • « when do you leave ? »

Don’t feel obliged to reply to these questions, don’t believe neither the proposed replies below are ideal to socialize.

  • « when did you arrive ? » —> « 5 min ago »
  • « in which hotel do you stay ? » —> « why do you want to know, are you gay ? »
  • « How did you come in ? » —> « I chartered a Panamax »
  • « when do you leave ? » —> « now, bye bye »

What if you end up in a cocktail party, and you feel very lonely, you don’t know anybody ?

3 options :

  • Go to the buffet, ask for a beer and start the conversation with the guy next to you asking for a Vodka tonic. Catch phrase to open the conversation ? « alcohol is a good way to survive in this market, by the way, what do you think about the market ? »
  • If nobody close to you, with your beer, go to the lonely guy, just like you and start the conversation. He’ll be pleased to share his thoughts about the market and not being on his own anymore (as pleased as you probably)
  • If nobody is lonely, take you smart phone and open the Pokemon Go app, you’ll surely find a rare Pikachu in the area.

With all the above tips, I think you’re on the safe side and I see absolute no reason why your business trip shall not be a success…unless you’re getting completly wasted at Elysee.

Disclaimer :

The above is a work of fiction. Names, characters, businesses, places, events and incidents are either the products of the author’s imagination or used in a fictitious manner. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, or actual events is purely coincidental.