all about people

I don’t think you need to go to the opthalomologist to check if your vision is still ok in order to try to understand the market. Market is softening heavily and as it happens from time to time, no matter (or so) what’s the last done to provide some kind of guidance for the next one.

lunette

If we would have to take this rule for fixing 30,000 5pct moloo from upr to Algeria, then we would take as guidance the mv ‘Nord Savannah’ fixture reported today

“‘Nord Savannah’ 2013 37067 dwt dely Sao Francisco do Sul 18/19 Dec trip via Recalada redel Algiers intention grains $17,000”. (with rumor late this pm on corrected figure at $16,000)

bss $17,000 daily, 7,000satnoonshex at load / 2,500thu5pm-sun8amhex at disch this is leading the freight somewhere around $43.50pmt with 31,500mt loaded. (bss $16,000 you can shave down by $2.00pmt)

So on the basis of “last done and knowing market is softening, it would be reasonable to target “low $40’s” (or very low $40 if $16,000 is the real figure)

Reasonable but overpaid probably, as I have rumors, same biz has been concluded earlier this week with one of the ABCD at touch below $40. When another one, freshly out, as an opportunity to be covered still for December, is in discussion around $39.00pmt.

Likewise ex BLSEA should the last done be the rules, at no point Meridian would have been able to get  mv’Triades’ 2005 28500dwt at $7,750 dely Canakkale pro mpt trip via Black Sea redel Turkey intention grain as few days ago similar biz was worth above $8,500.

International Human Solidarity Day is today 20 dec 2017 and it’s lead by United Nation. Bit bizarre to have the UN to set up an official International day for such a cause. As if from 21st dec until the 19th dec of the next year all is over, let Human Solidarity issue aside and Rendez-vous next year for a worldwide hug.

Shipping, like any other business* is nothing else than a community of people working together, sharing the same goals, cherishing the same ships, loving the same cargoes  and yes trying to make some money out of the cargoes flow and ships movements.

So today dec 20th, we shall not forget, while we are in our cumfy offices, some members of this so called “shipping Communauty” are suffering from some behaviours.
When we are all focusing on Index and return on money and are finally quite happy to realize, so far, not so many Owners went into bankruptcy,  some next door have not understood the whole concept of being a shipowners. In 2017, with all the information flow, everybody’s able to know what’s everyone doing it’s still surprising somehow, to realize, “2017 marked a high point in the number of cases of abandoned crew“. See the full article here

 

and should you want to read Mission to Seafarers’ Christmas message, well, lucky you, the link is here

Bit more specific but still about people, I did not know personally Maurice Meehan who passed away suddendly last week. Going through the tribute done by splash, here looking like Shipping has lost a brilliant character. A man with quite few convictions fighting for a better shipping world.

All in all I’m not here to set the standards, neither give lessons, I just thought it was nice at some stage to remind to all of us why we are here.

*some will love to say, “yeah but especially in Shipping, because shipping is different” but I won’t get into this debate “is shipping trully unique or not”)

 

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Market is doing last minute shopping calls

If you were waiting for BDI fixtures’ list to try to figure out how’s market moving, well get you have you answer. With a list of 8 fixtures done (putting aside the « recent » / « last week ») we can tell market has started to consider the « pause mode » and likely to be similar in the next remaining days of December.

BUT charterers being open on the market with same cargo(es) around since last week shall not, yet, celebrate and to the contrary stay focus on their fixing target and maybe shall consider moving on before being perceived as desperate.

Of course, charterers are never desperate, it’s only the brokers involved who are giving this sentiment, as the latters willing to fix the cargo before having to consider postponing their christmas break.

marche de noel

Don’t worry, if you don’t fix it with others, Pelagos will remain open the whole week and so next week, and we’ll be happy to help you if needed.

 

You can be wrong for all the right reasons

falcon

On the chartering side, let’s face it, here, at least, it has been a fairly boring day with not too much fresh biz to chew on and keep my falcon eyes busy to spot out the perfect lady fitting the nicest stem (or vice & versa). We are now entering into the next stage, the last 2 weeks of the year with the holidays seasons coming in and it’s quite likely we are going to be in a « positional market ». With not much fresh stems which shall pop up but still some opportunities for the players being open at the right place, at the right time. And surely the ones keen to postponed the christmas shopping able to do better bargains than the ones having only in mind the willingness to take a break.

From Continent, we have the rumor an operator had to swallow fairly high TC number to be in position to perform the contract signed back end November. After being left without the ship they had in mind, they had to fix the last remaining workable spot lady around on DOP bss. This for a Rouen to algeria wheat stem. If my info are right, this is costing close to $6.00pmt to the operator, this is the price to save your name.

From Baltic, charterers are flabbergasted to get indication on their next requirement something like $5pmt below their initial estimations and up to my knowledge, they are still trying to find out if they completly misread the market or trying to figure out if this cheap indication is suspicious or a real good deal.

Charterers Grain market and shipping market seems to be somehow the same. You should take 10 minutes of your time to go through this « key note » proposed by Bryce Knorr with the below very inspirational title « 13 lessons learned from the Grain Markets » and you’ll realize most of his key learnings (let’s say at least the one I understood) could also be easily applicable to shipping market, to tease you and give you bit of willingness to read this document, here below a selection of few of his « key learnings »

  • Nobody knows anything… trying to figure out the markets is as hard as predicting whether a movie will be a blockbuster or a bomb.
  • The market is always right (even with it’s wrong)… And blaming the market won’t do any good.
  • You can be wrong for all the right reasons… for the last two years, my prices forecasts were fairly accurate, even if the logic turned out to be wrong.

The full lessons are here

And to conclude the week, should you only prefer to focus on chartering/chartering/chartering, then you can have a go on this Baltic Briefing bulk report with as the highlight of the week the Panamax new high for the year with average BPI routes at $13,740 (on 13th dec). Full details here

 

have a nice afternoon, evening, week-end.

Rgds

Jerome

freight for russian wheat to Brazil

You must have seen this info reported in various reports and for instance from my friends here

and of course you are billions of traders wondering what would be the freight for this buisness to check how Russian wheat can get into the Copacabana beaches?

For sake of having some sorts of ideas, I grabbed my nicest abacus out of my office shelves and run some figures which as promised I’m sharing here.

Knowing this is only for guidance, only theorical and sub restrictions which may apply at both ends berths.

We can take as a benchmark the followings on the handies “HS1_38 TRIAL – Skaw-Passero trip to Rio de Janeiro-Recalada 38,200dwt @$9,289”

on the supras, unless I don’t have the right info, which might be the case, no similar route to be considered. However, passing Canakkale redel north Brazil, $10,000 daily shall not be too far away from the reality, while redel South Brazil $11,000 daily, I tend to believe being not that wrong.

So on these bassis:

  • 50,000 10pct bulk wheat – Novo 7000sshex / Recife 7000satnoonshex freight shall be somewhere around $19.00pmt
  • 50,000 10pct bulk wheat – Novo 7000sshex / Santos7000satnoonshex freight shall be somewhere around $21.50pmt
  • 30,000 10pct bulk wheat – Novo 7000sshex / Recife 6000satnoonshex freight shall be somewhere around $23.00pmt
  • 50,000 10pct bulk wheat – Novo 7000sshex / Santos7000satnoonshex freight shall be somewhere around $26.00pmt

Is that it? No. As somewhere in your price tree you need to add a 10% tax over C&F and a 25% tax freight.

  • You’re the expert on you C&F, so I let you do the maths.
  • Also do you really need my skills to add 25% on the freight mentioned above? no, I’m sure you can handle Easy for brains like you.

To try to be complete, I understood this week a Handy as been covered at $16,000 daily for a grain coastal buisness. Let’s assume it was from Argentina to Brazil. What’s that means freightwise?

  • 30,000 10pct bulk wheat – upr 7000/ Recife 6000satnoonshex bends freight shall be somewhere around $25.50pmt
  • 30,000 10pct bulk wheat – upr 7000/ Paranagua 6000satnoonshex bendsfreight shall be somewhere around $21.00pmt

Bare in mind, these estimations are made on the basis of current market mid dec 2017, being very strong for handies ex ECSA, very strong for Smx ex USG, fairly steady ex Black Sea and of course Owners who should apply for such business while open in BLSEA should be happy to propose a discount on the daily equivalent obtained. Should the market be in a different state, the whole results would be completly different.

And to conclude this theorical freight exercice, these figures are provided in good faith, as brokers I can stand behind my rationals however this is NOT to be considered as freight proposed with owners in back up, in hands, keen to jump at these levels.

So in nutshell this is As brokers only I.T.S.A.A.A. (If the Stars Are All Aligned).

etoiles

Voilà, make your bets.

regards

Jerome

 

Famous so called “disruptive” technology starts to reach shipping

Trust BMTI in today’s report in the handy bulk view point section printing “Freights seem to keep rising from the Wmed to Wafrica since tonnage of 57kdwt has been traded between $17/18,000 daily with dely westmed” they refer to this fixture which we all have seen as reported in yesterday’s BDI ‘Warrior’ 2012 56785 dwt dely Gibraltar prompt trip via Morocco redel West Africa $17,000 –

Re, I tend to disagree with the following statement, “owners of 35,000dwt seem confident they can achieve a rate of around $10/11000 daily for black sea to WestMed“. Or to say it another way, Owners can be confident, but according to what we are seeing, charterers are also quite confident, on same size ship, they might be able to obtain below $10,000. Charterers argueing, they don’t have any notice restrictions and therefore can take the ship at the last minute, just before Christmas, for example.

Also bit surprised, but I’m not challenging the info, for once, to realize a 32kdwt being worth “still” $11,750 from USG to ECSA, while the route USG to Skaw-Pass is at $11,500 on the 28kdwt (and above $15000 on the 38kdwt).

a part from that,

Did you know “blockchain also is becoming a key tool for shipping companies”? If you did not know, you should wake up.

 

Did you know, China is dominating the Lloydslist top 100 most influential people in shipping? If you’re not chinese and part of the list, well done, you’re my hero (or kind off)

Finally, did you know increase traffic in ports does not necessarily means more gaz polluting emissions. see here, https://shipandbunker.com/news/am/832802-port-of-vancouver-sees-significant-emissions-reduction-since-2010  …yes we can

rgds

Jerome

Owners open in Spore need to wait for Valentine’s day to get his premium to end up in Atlantic. lovers’ dinner is screwed

Some nice information on today’s Bmti

handies

ex Continent/baltic

  • 34kdwt being proposed $20,000 for quick coastal coal business. Kind of nice money if Owners managing to find another employment while open during the week 52
  • 28kdwt being proposed $10,500 dely continent via baltic to Portugal. Running some voyage estimates here, if I’m right, bss Klaipeda with 8000sshinc to Lisbon with 10,000sshex, this is giving on the spot a freight around $16pmt.

arsh weather conditions are putting both owners and charterers under pressure. Charterers looking for safe itinerary ships, and owners seeing their ships being delayed and potentially cancelled, unless they are keen to revise the terms and conditions of the fixture. On without prejudice bassis of course!

Ex BLSEA,

while beginning of the week the feeling was somehow flat or “uneventful” to quote yesterday’s BMTI report, today their position is to say “Blsea gaining momentum […] rates look very attractive”. If 35kdwt are indeed worth $10,000 bss dely canakkale, on this bss for a 30000 10pct bulk wheat stem one safe port Russia with 7000sshex bends o Span Med would bring the freight somewhere close to $17pmt. Same to Port Said, with 5000sshex out shall lead the freight close to $14.75.

Ex ECSA,

if Coastal biz are indeed worth $16,000 on 35kdwt (Check in BMTI again), assuming this is grains from Argentina to Brazil, there is still some room left on the freight to keep argentinean wheat competitive Vs the Russian one. Heard Brazil signed a decree enabling russian wheat to get in the country… But obviously the decree is not inviting owners to consider these shipments for free, or peanuts.

Ex USG:

still driven by the Supras, looking like the handies/handymaxes are now managing to get into the party.

Ex FEAST:

well just check today’s bdi fixture, mv ‘Hamburg Pearl’ 39.3kdwt looking like to be happy to get back into atlantic basin, against $6,000daily dely Sport redel continent. After 62 days, owners will get $10,500. So Owners need to wait Valentine’s day to get the premium. No perfume, no fancy dinner for madam I’m afraid*.

valentineday

Outside of handies, worth to mention Capes passing the $30,000 mark

Talking a bit about bunkers, according to CNBC, the Brent above $65 is around, for the first time since mid 2015. Bunkers still, climate again, Paris once more, 35 nations have signed a shipping emissions regulation agreement, via the IMO. On the paper that’s a good news, in the air, this remains to be seen, if the 35 nations are weighting 2% of the fleet at sea and 1% of the ports calls worldwide, the deal does not mean much

have a nice afternoon, morning, evening, night, wherever you’re sitting in the world.

rgds

Jerome

*or monsieur, in case the Owners is a woman. Let’s be bit more open minded.

 

 

 

pre-christmas boarding last call

what if the shipping would be a cycle?

Some experts having a theory about this, my good old friends experts still struggling to define precisely the lenght of each cycle… let us help them a bit, last time BDI went from below 1,700 to above we need to go back to end november 2013, on 25th BDI was at 1,492, 10 days later, it reached 2,145, then hitted close to 2,300 on 16th dec 2014 (and yes back below 1,500 on 20th january 2014).

In between, 16th dec / 20 jan at that time:

  • the rouen to algeria usual stem was done at $26pmt,
  • 45kdwt from Usg to continent was reported done at $26,000,
  • when still from USG modern 58kdwt was fixed for 2/3ll redel Atlantic at approx $25,000 daily,
  • the 60,000mt grains from USG to china was concluded at $57.50,
  • 35kdwt dely Paranagua via UPR redel Continent was made at decent $20,000,
  • Owners of 34kdwt dely CJK via nopac redel spore Japan range were charging $11,500 daily to charterers

Sorry to say, for owners, we are not yet back again to these levels, and according to info which came here, we can say

  • the rouen to algeria usual stem is worth around $21
  • 45kdwt from USG to continent shall be close but still below $20,000 (if you have some info, please share)
  • when from USEC nice ultra is reported done dop NewYork on tct redel Continent at $23,000
  • the 60,000mt grains from USG to china chrtrs would be happy to fix below $45 for december shipment (according to F&G report, “China imported 8.68mmt of soyabeans during november” – quite above same last year)
  • 35kdwt dely Santos via UPR redel Algeria was made at decent $17,000 (Mother M fixed on 4 or 5th dec)
  • Owners of 34kdwt dely CJK via N China redel Wafr with steels getting $7,100

Meantime, to be balanced,

sorry to say, for charterers, if you go through BMTI report, generally speaking the confidence is on owners side,

at least on the Atlantic side of the globe mainly led by the USG, closely followed by the ECSA market, with still according to F&G reports ” Argentina‘s wheat exports are slightly lower on the week ending 07 Dec, but the number of vessels that would be loaded with wheat is growing from week to week, and this time it’s approximately 770 kt of wheat, that is loading /expecting to be loaded soon”

Looking forward, if you fancy it, a way to explain losy futures on the capers, could be explained here by Baltic Exchange report, stating “chinese crude steel output is predicted to register near zero growth in 2018…” see the full report here  on which I would simply add the comment, “are chinese source really reliable when it comes to stock and importations plans?”

China again, for some reasons, they are still happy to build new ships, to keep busy their local workforce probably and maybe (who knows?) to keep up a flow of new buildings coming in and screw down transportation costs. Full story here and lovely, the ships are cheap .

Finally, as ironically mentionned by a clever guy, namely Basil Karatzas

How ironic! Electric ship to be used for transport of coal! Fully electric cargo ship launched in“! here again what he is referring to.

The planet is not saved yet so while waiting for this good news, as proposed by another wise guy, namely Court Smith,  let’s listen to Elton John, with this song “in the circle of life“.

( on which I will add I’m not a big fan of Elton but do you really care?)

have a nice day and don’t forget we can also fix, in circle if you want, your ships and your cargoes.

Jerome