Capers have found their master when it comes to volatility

Mixed sentiment again on the real chartering life on the handies in the med/cont/blsea with on one hand quite few fresh enquiries seen but still quite few ships still open spot and trying to get a decent money for their next employments. Let’s say Owners are confident market shall move up when charterers do not see too much reason why they shall consider higher rates than last week. Poker skills (not to say big balls, I’m trying to be witty some times) shall once again make the difference. From Black Sea it seems the confidence and upward on the Supras and the bigger sizes has not crossed the Handy barrier yet. Reading various reports on the commodity, the postponed availibility of the grains in Azov Sea and black Sea silos is one of the reason why Handies are not yet buoyant.

From Continent, we heard $16.10 was booked end last week from Rouen to algeria with 30,000 5pct bulk wheat with usual terms, could guess the $0.10 in the freight was a kind of a battle and meant few phone calls from the broker involved to try to get the best of it for both counterparties.

From USG, on handies still, Glencore trying to book a usg to New-Zealand cargo and $4usdpmt are appart from chrtrs ideas and owners’ ones, while very quick biz from Jamaica to ARAG was booked close to $1 below what charterers were initially having in mind.

Worth to talk quickly about Bunkers, Ecuador being in needs for money announced they’ll start increasing again for their Oil production. Will this be a domino effect from others OPEC’s member who all (or most of them) need to urgently improve their income. As a result we can expect Oil price to get down further, which again could be a good news for the shipping Industry at first glance. Not sure this is a great news on the long run, knowing most of the oil producers are also big commodity importers. Wheat rarely grow in Petrol fields. How will these guys finance the importing of goods is the next question? the one after is if they cut down their importation, they’ll need less ships in their ports right?

Finally doing a bit of “pela-gos-sip” according to Dailymail, George Economou, one of the shipping magnate, the one running DRYSHIP, might need to give away $240million to his ex girlfriend. I let you read this sordid story and to check, how worth is DRYSHIP, according to the nasdaq stock exchange here , not much. As a comment, we are saying Capers is the most volatile segment in our industry

Min max value in the last 12 months 556/2,765

Min max volatility in the last 12 months (% from Act) 2,209 (237%)

Can we say DRYSHIP is quite good also about volatility ?

rgds

Jerome

 

shipping a circular economy?

Let’s run some maths today, being fairly quiet here in France has locals watching the Trump Défilé in Paris and celebrating national day in France. This fixture reported today in the BDI is worth to be evaluated on voyage equivalent.

Ex ECSA ‘Pola Atlantic’ 2010 33465 dwt dely S Brazil 16/20 Jul trip W Mediterranean $13,100 daily – cnr

This lovely ship has probably been fixed late last week and was coming (in ballast ?) from Douala and circulated « open Recalada 20/22 july ». $13,100 is quite a number, and let’s run som estimates with different options

A/ bss  Dely Recalada (ship is assuming ballasting)

1sb San lorenzo where 7,000 satnoonshex

To 1sbsp Morocco where 5,000sshex and32’sw

This $13,100 daily gives voyage equivalent @ somewhere between $29.50/30.00pmt

 

Same assumption but to 1sbsp Algeria with 2,500sshex and 32’sw

This $13,100 daily gives voyage equivalent @ somewhere between $36.00/36.50pmt

B/ Assuming the ship got fixed on dop bss ex Paranagua to load in UPR, we can then add something like $2pmt on both options

What’s behind this fixture, which seems bit high compared to what we can see/hear/do on this trade ? Counting comparable ships registered in our database today max 20yrs old, from 27 to 39kdwat proposed this week and said in ECSA before 31st july, we can see 30 ships.

For sure Owners have good reasons to be confident, looking at Index the HS3 was at $9,736 when today it’s at $10,461.

Others which are confident about the future are Capes players, which according to BMTI are 1,265 vsl’s at sea, +2% of Capes are at sea compared to last year (weighting 322mdwt) and more to come, like 118 Capes are supposed to be delivered by end of 2020. All of this Iron ore to build… ships (and containers also)???

Have a nice week-end

Rgds

Jerome

 

 

 

how strawberries used to be shipped?

Good day, good morning,

Sorry I don’t have much clever things to say today about the chartering market. I could paraphrase the BDI easily with words such like “all indexes moving up to North” with a questionnable sentiment on the handies and supras in Atlantic, where it seems indexes are bit behind the reality of the market”. But in reality I don’t have much info in hands which I can disclose or which are enough to be able to guess for a near future trend.

So I let you make up your own opinion and will mention you few things about the bunkers and grains and food

Bunkers

If true, Owners might once again have been taken for a ride. Despite the Dutch ports being fairly well known for cheap bunkers, the local Consumer Authority is investigating into a ‘possible cartel in the bunker sector in the ports of Amsterdam, Antwerp and Rotterdam”. This “cartel” might be the only solution for bunkers players to be able to still make money out of their business. Today, a barrel of WTI for August delivery was traded at $45.23. Our friends, the experts, are now working on the hypothesis oil prices won’t recover before 2020. 2020, seems far away but reminding you we are already mid 2017, so A/ yes time is flying B/ 2020 is somehow tomorrow.

Grains

Any owners of drybulk carrier playing from handies up to panamaxes shall have noticed Egypt is a kind of a big grain importer, in the financial year, they imported 5.58Millions tons (something like more than 100 supras) , the plan for the Egyptian authority, is to make savings (rest re assured savings seems not to make the population starve (at least this is not presented this way)). Gasc would like to cut imports by something like 10% . Look at info here . If they manage to do so, no doubt it will have an impact on the chartering market and so on the commodity trading market.

Food

lucky you, today, ships have to feed 7.6billion people, by 2050 it will be (projected) 9.8billion (you appreciate I’m not saying “about 10billion people”, as the gap between 9.8 and 10 is still 200Million mouths to feed). You can read this survey here to make plans about your future trading routes. But don’t believe it’s going to be an easy path, look at this french start-up managed by Gonzague and Guillaume, these guys are growing strawberries in recycled containers based downtown. What if tomorrow their business model and future innovation is making Egypt able to grow their own wheat in Le Caire and around and get rid off the the millions tons yearly imported. What will we do with our 110 supras?

Waiting for this, should you have a supra to fix, please let us know we have few cargoes for her

rgds

Jerome

Momentum in Atlantic on handies

Good day,

Who knows, maybe atlantic market on the handies was awaiting for Jerome to take a week off to gain some momentum.

According to BMTI (and also from what we can see), BLSEA handy market is sparkling, with grains being in the starting blocks for the new crop and charterers seems to have secured 3 ships in a row for 35,000mt of bulk wheat ex Romania to Arag in the 13.00/13.50$pmt range. Prompt owners open in the area have no shame to propose their nice 34kdwat at time charter equivalent at $10,000 daily bss passing Canakkale. This seems to us bit early and ambitious, meantime charterers’ ideas are already giving something like $1,000 more daily compared to last week.

Continent is showing somehow similar situation, taking the Rouen to Algeria, all year long business (or so) as a benchmark, time charter equivalent for owners are now getting somewhere close to $7,500 daily bss passing Gibraltar while 1 week ago, it was more somewhere around the $6,500 daily mark.

Argentina, we understood from close friends, 39,000dwt being « on subs for a trip from River Plate to Algeria in the mid $12,000 daily »… converted into voyage terms, with let’s be crazy 33,000mt loaded on this ship, bss 7000satnoonshex/2500x this is leading to freight at $33.50/33.75 pmt. According to BMTI, charterers decided to ballast their in-house ladies from Gib and respectively Wafr to cover their next requirements. Nothing really new to ballast from Wafr towards ECSA I must add. Also this decision is surely helped by the low bunkers prices being seen lately. Some are saying (Goldman sachs) the Barrel of oil might get around $47 usd per unit for more than a while if OPEC is not getting more aggressive in their production cut plan. See more here

Finally, I often mention in this report difficult life faced by the seafarers and the risks they are facing on daily basis to transport safely goods from port A to port B. We shall not forget, in the grains industry, we all need farmers to grow, harvest, collect the grains and make them available in the ports’ silos, their job is not neither the safest one in the world. If you doubt it, you can find some info here. (where I have to admit, I’m not 100% familiar about this media politico.com, but like to believe they are serious guys).

Wishing you a nice afternoon, nice reading and let’s fix again ;

Rgds

Jerome

 

quick market report before a short break

Glencore is apparently now obtaining « below $15usdpmt » (hence below their fixing ideas) on this Dunkirk to algeria, bulk wheat stem of 30,000 5pct, which if true is a rather good sign for charterers in need to move their grains from continent in the 10 days to come.

Sentiment from Black Sea remains relatively mixed. The locals are all awaiting the new grains season to kick off, however, good owners are able to obtain Dop emed around $5,500 for a trip to continent via blsea w/ clean cargo on 32kdwt. Dop Odessa to Egypt, same ship size is done at $6,500 daily.

ECSA, Yangtze Dignity 32kdwt is finally said fixed at $10,500 daily for a trip to Wmed dely DOP Paranagua, assuming the ship is able to load 30,000mt and loading in 1sp upr with 7000satnoonshex terms to algeria with 2,500sshex out, this shall bring on voyage equivalent something around $30.00. It remains quite a good number for owners.

What else in our fantastic world ? is it worth to tell you we have, here in France, a new minister of transports who declared during a meeting in front of french logistic professionals « I want to make french ports more competitive ». See here This is a great news, thanks Elisabeth for declaring such. Any readers who have heard a freshly named minister declaring « I’ll do my best to make ports under my authority less competitive, I’ll try hard but I’m confident I’ll succeed » ?

whatever the politics, let me wish an happy 150 birthday to Canadians who might read this. As a gift, I’ll let you have a week free of reports and will come back to you on Monday 10th july. Of course, Pelagos team remain on the deck while I’m on the beach.

Rgds

Jerome

 

 

 

 

Only Greeks shipowners can claim to be Greek Shipowners, they are gifted about timing.

Dunkirk to algeria, according to bmti, on bulk wheat stem of 30,000 5pct with as mentionned yesterday 15,000c at load, « charterers are proposed tonnage at $15.75, but charterers kept silent », probably thinking « time will help to get better offer on the plate ». In the last weeks, on this specific trade, owners managed to keep the freight level relatively stable.

From Black Sea, once again, handies looking for grains are all jumping on the very few stems out and ready to do $6,500 daily dely Canakkale with redel West Med.

Also an interesting quick focus is proposed on the Great Lakes /st Law area where, it seems, but might be worth to cross check info, not enough activity there for owners to be happy to end up in this area. Again, at least on the grains, trust need to wait a bit for the excitement to come in.

About excitment, few weeks ago I was daring to say « Greece is the center of the world when it comes to shipping », you have here some info on greek fleets on greek owners, despite today’s bmti report on S&P, mentionning they ‘only’ invest worth $58.3 mio in 3 ships (2 modern 58kdwt gone at 25mio each and one japanese 32kdwt gone for $8.3mio).

Finally, mister Nasser, BHPBilliton’s boss could have get better inspiration (by asking to Greek owners (for example) if the timing is right for investing) before spending $20Billion in US Shale. Asking to brokers? don’t even think about it BHP do not need brokers as you know. So no need to wonder why BHP is cutting shipbrokers commissions (they probably gave away all of it to the finance experts who made the US shale’s acquisition done).

Have a nice afternoon and should you have some off market cargo/ship to fix, we’ll get excited to sort it out.

Rgds

Jerome

Where is Waldo?

Is it a sign stating market is in very good shape? while you’re receiving a circular from brokers based in singapore sent at 11.00pm local time being as follow:

“CAN ANYONE HELP US TO REACH OWNS OF BELOW VESSEL? WE HAVE SPOT CARGO FOR HER” and then name/specs/position of the ship…?

Owners are so confident about their ship’s attractivness  they believe it’s worth to hide and invite for proposals, eventhough this said ship is SPOT… or Owners being Maersk and out of IT system? the brokers in Singapore shall have proposed a reward for the one bringing him the ship, such like double commission if fixed or nice diner out if not fixed, not sure what but for sure something.

on the fixtures reported, today’s mv ‘AQUATA’ fixture raised our intention, this 46.5kdwt built 1999 said fixed daily Recalada to Algeria with grains at $12,250 with laycan 29/30 june is looking quite good for owners. Putting aside the waiting time to tender notice at loadport which may apply for any grains shipments in Argentina, basis 7000satnoonshex at load and 3000sshex at discharge and 40,000mt loaded this shall end up to a voyage equivalent close to 25/26usdpmt. This handymax fixture is to be compared with either what we heard today 33,000dwt said fixed for 10th july at $10,000 daily bss Dely Recalada for a tirp to NCSA or 58kdwt fixed in the $11,500/$11,750 range for a trip to continent.

Ex continent/Baltic, West African traders will be interested to read a 35,000mt of wheat ex German Baltic to 3 ports in Nigeria (assume 8000sshex /3,000 satnoonshex) being worth somewhere close to $27/mt when again 30kmt wheat from Dunkirk to Algeria with 15,000c /2,500x is targetted by charterers at $15,00 while holding $1 more. Converted into TCE, charterers ideas are Dop Rotterdam at $8,600 when the $16.00 equal to $1,000 more on daily bss (bss ship able to load 30,000). At more standard loading terms, ie 10,000sshex owners TCE is at 17usdpmt (and charterers equivalent at $16)

Overall, marketwise, BDI is offering you here a worth to read summary of the shipping market.  with some limits in their assumptions such like “bunkers prices increases […] which is likely to happen continuously over the course of 2017”. This assumption still have yet to be proven, 6 months to go to be right.

Regards

Jerome