Few comments/ correction on what’s proposed by Bmti today… and yesterday.
Let’s start with yesterday then
A voyage fixture of 40,000-tonnes 10% stem from Up River to Algeria was booked at $30.75 with 8,000mt load and 5,000mt discharge and 5% total commission structure », looking like the terms of the fixture are 8,000mt bends also covered on tbn bss. Obviously on a tbn it’s rather hazardous to play with figures and run the right TC estimates. Will the performer be a 52kdwt or a modern Ultramax, the result will be quite different. Anyway, bss 8000mt bends, based on the estimate I made yesterday, from $14,600 it’s moving up close to $16,000 on daily equivalent. Once again, this is only pure theory.
Today, we can read « off the continent a 35,000 dwt was fixed for front front haul run at $15,000 », when we know this lady MV ZHEN ZHU HAI DWT 39746MT /15 / GRABBER OPEN HAMBURG ON ABT 19/APR, PREFER F.HAUL got fixed for her Front haul. And owners were asking $15,500 dop at first sight. Could it be then the 35kdwt mentionned by BMTI being finally a 40kdwt ?
We can also read « Judging by fixtures Handy bulk would seem to be the busiest sector »… really ? how many handies fixtures reported 3 exactly ! Trust, but you’ll have noticed already, BMTI having in mind « supras » while mentionning handies. Yes the supra list of fixture is almost as long as a rainy day. In regards to the Transgrain mention from South France to Morocco, at « $13/mt » my little finger is telling me it’s done bit below this level on a 28kdwt and to be bit more precise, worth to mention the cargo was a Min/max, the commidity being bulk barley stowing abt 53’, the loading port being FOS sur Mer and the disch port being nador with lovely drafts restrictions w/ 8000x/5000x. So at first sight some may believe this is quite a high number. But once the maths are put down on the table, no, I don’t think sub aps $7,500 daily for such quick biz is really a great number.
This is leading to my next point today, I have learned in the last 10 years, fixing ships is giving attention to details. This is exactly the same while reading the reports and trying to evaluate voyage and time charterers equivalent. Small difference or lack of the most important information is easily leading to a misevaluation or a misguidance. This, of course, shall not impact each and everyone of us to have an opinion on the market.
Shipping is paying attention to details, it’s also being able to get the big picture!
If you’re asking my opinion, in the last month, overall I find the market very difficult to read and obviously to predict. Who would have placed a bet on the petrol barrel price being today above $73 ? Who can anticipate the Russian farmers not really keen to sell their crop ?
Beside this, you can have a read on this question about change of weather (which we could call it climate) and impact of this change on the shipping trade.
eventhough the analysis proposed is, according to me, bit short (for example no mention about the new polar routes or talking about volcanic eruption… since when Volcanic eruption are said to be weather ?!), the question is a fair and legitimate one.
Last question of the day : Will Glencore move on Bunge soon ? according to Bunge share movements, it could be yes, the right timing.
Have a nice afternoon, evening