You can be wrong for all the right reasons

falcon

On the chartering side, let’s face it, here, at least, it has been a fairly boring day with not too much fresh biz to chew on and keep my falcon eyes busy to spot out the perfect lady fitting the nicest stem (or vice & versa). We are now entering into the next stage, the last 2 weeks of the year with the holidays seasons coming in and it’s quite likely we are going to be in a « positional market ». With not much fresh stems which shall pop up but still some opportunities for the players being open at the right place, at the right time. And surely the ones keen to postponed the christmas shopping able to do better bargains than the ones having only in mind the willingness to take a break.

From Continent, we have the rumor an operator had to swallow fairly high TC number to be in position to perform the contract signed back end November. After being left without the ship they had in mind, they had to fix the last remaining workable spot lady around on DOP bss. This for a Rouen to algeria wheat stem. If my info are right, this is costing close to $6.00pmt to the operator, this is the price to save your name.

From Baltic, charterers are flabbergasted to get indication on their next requirement something like $5pmt below their initial estimations and up to my knowledge, they are still trying to find out if they completly misread the market or trying to figure out if this cheap indication is suspicious or a real good deal.

Charterers Grain market and shipping market seems to be somehow the same. You should take 10 minutes of your time to go through this « key note » proposed by Bryce Knorr with the below very inspirational title « 13 lessons learned from the Grain Markets » and you’ll realize most of his key learnings (let’s say at least the one I understood) could also be easily applicable to shipping market, to tease you and give you bit of willingness to read this document, here below a selection of few of his « key learnings »

  • Nobody knows anything… trying to figure out the markets is as hard as predicting whether a movie will be a blockbuster or a bomb.
  • The market is always right (even with it’s wrong)… And blaming the market won’t do any good.
  • You can be wrong for all the right reasons… for the last two years, my prices forecasts were fairly accurate, even if the logic turned out to be wrong.

The full lessons are here

And to conclude the week, should you only prefer to focus on chartering/chartering/chartering, then you can have a go on this Baltic Briefing bulk report with as the highlight of the week the Panamax new high for the year with average BPI routes at $13,740 (on 13th dec). Full details here

 

have a nice afternoon, evening, week-end.

Rgds

Jerome

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