You must have seen this info reported in various reports and for instance from my friends here
and of course you are billions of traders wondering what would be the freight for this buisness to check how Russian wheat can get into the Copacabana beaches?
For sake of having some sorts of ideas, I grabbed my nicest abacus out of my office shelves and run some figures which as promised I’m sharing here.
Knowing this is only for guidance, only theorical and sub restrictions which may apply at both ends berths.
We can take as a benchmark the followings on the handies “HS1_38 TRIAL – Skaw-Passero trip to Rio de Janeiro-Recalada 38,200dwt @$9,289”
on the supras, unless I don’t have the right info, which might be the case, no similar route to be considered. However, passing Canakkale redel north Brazil, $10,000 daily shall not be too far away from the reality, while redel South Brazil $11,000 daily, I tend to believe being not that wrong.
So on these bassis:
- 50,000 10pct bulk wheat – Novo 7000sshex / Recife 7000satnoonshex freight shall be somewhere around $19.00pmt
- 50,000 10pct bulk wheat – Novo 7000sshex / Santos7000satnoonshex freight shall be somewhere around $21.50pmt
- 30,000 10pct bulk wheat – Novo 7000sshex / Recife 6000satnoonshex freight shall be somewhere around $23.00pmt
- 50,000 10pct bulk wheat – Novo 7000sshex / Santos7000satnoonshex freight shall be somewhere around $26.00pmt
Is that it? No. As somewhere in your price tree you need to add a 10% tax over C&F and a 25% tax freight.
- You’re the expert on you C&F, so I let you do the maths.
- Also do you really need my skills to add 25% on the freight mentioned above? no, I’m sure you can handle Easy for brains like you.
To try to be complete, I understood this week a Handy as been covered at $16,000 daily for a grain coastal buisness. Let’s assume it was from Argentina to Brazil. What’s that means freightwise?
- 30,000 10pct bulk wheat – upr 7000/ Recife 6000satnoonshex bends freight shall be somewhere around $25.50pmt
- 30,000 10pct bulk wheat – upr 7000/ Paranagua 6000satnoonshex bendsfreight shall be somewhere around $21.00pmt
Bare in mind, these estimations are made on the basis of current market mid dec 2017, being very strong for handies ex ECSA, very strong for Smx ex USG, fairly steady ex Black Sea and of course Owners who should apply for such business while open in BLSEA should be happy to propose a discount on the daily equivalent obtained. Should the market be in a different state, the whole results would be completly different.
And to conclude this theorical freight exercice, these figures are provided in good faith, as brokers I can stand behind my rationals however this is NOT to be considered as freight proposed with owners in back up, in hands, keen to jump at these levels.
So in nutshell this is As brokers only I.T.S.A.A.A. (If the Stars Are All Aligned).
Voilà, make your bets.