what if the shipping would be a cycle?
Some experts having a theory about this, my good old friends experts still struggling to define precisely the lenght of each cycle… let us help them a bit, last time BDI went from below 1,700 to above we need to go back to end november 2013, on 25th BDI was at 1,492, 10 days later, it reached 2,145, then hitted close to 2,300 on 16th dec 2014 (and yes back below 1,500 on 20th january 2014).
In between, 16th dec / 20 jan at that time:
- the rouen to algeria usual stem was done at $26pmt,
- 45kdwt from Usg to continent was reported done at $26,000,
- when still from USG modern 58kdwt was fixed for 2/3ll redel Atlantic at approx $25,000 daily,
- the 60,000mt grains from USG to china was concluded at $57.50,
- 35kdwt dely Paranagua via UPR redel Continent was made at decent $20,000,
- Owners of 34kdwt dely CJK via nopac redel spore Japan range were charging $11,500 daily to charterers
Sorry to say, for owners, we are not yet back again to these levels, and according to info which came here, we can say
- the rouen to algeria usual stem is worth around $21
- 45kdwt from USG to continent shall be close but still below $20,000 (if you have some info, please share)
- when from USEC nice ultra is reported done dop NewYork on tct redel Continent at $23,000
- the 60,000mt grains from USG to china chrtrs would be happy to fix below $45 for december shipment (according to F&G report, “China imported 8.68mmt of soyabeans during november” – quite above same last year)
- 35kdwt dely Santos via UPR redel Algeria was made at decent $17,000 (Mother M fixed on 4 or 5th dec)
- Owners of 34kdwt dely CJK via N China redel Wafr with steels getting $7,100
Meantime, to be balanced,
sorry to say, for charterers, if you go through BMTI report, generally speaking the confidence is on owners side,
at least on the Atlantic side of the globe mainly led by the USG, closely followed by the ECSA market, with still according to F&G reports ” Argentina‘s wheat exports are slightly lower on the week ending 07 Dec, but the number of vessels that would be loaded with wheat is growing from week to week, and this time it’s approximately 770 kt of wheat, that is loading /expecting to be loaded soon”
Looking forward, if you fancy it, a way to explain losy futures on the capers, could be explained here by Baltic Exchange report, stating “chinese crude steel output is predicted to register near zero growth in 2018…” see the full report here on which I would simply add the comment, “are chinese source really reliable when it comes to stock and importations plans?”
China again, for some reasons, they are still happy to build new ships, to keep busy their local workforce probably and maybe (who knows?) to keep up a flow of new buildings coming in and screw down transportation costs. Full story here and lovely, the ships are cheap .
Finally, as ironically mentionned by a clever guy, namely Basil Karatzas
“ How ironic! Electric ship to be used for transport of coal! Fully electric cargo ship launched in“! here again what he is referring to.
The planet is not saved yet so while waiting for this good news, as proposed by another wise guy, namely Court Smith, let’s listen to Elton John, with this song “in the circle of life“.
( on which I will add I’m not a big fan of Elton but do you really care?)
have a nice day and don’t forget we can also fix, in circle if you want, your ships and your cargoes.