make sure you can rely on your assumptions… or fall and get wet

1,502 is today’s BDI level. Last time BDI crossed this mark from below to above such level, we need to fly back March 2014. On the BDI, putting aside the spike seen in Dec 2016, remember the ECSA market getting Crazy, likewise, March 2014 is the right timing.

At that time, 30kmt Rouen to Algeria bulk wheat stem was booked in the $23/25 region and 34kdwt lady was able to get $12,500 daily aps from Recalada to Continent.

Today, seems market is respectively around $20usdpmt for the Rouen cargo while the latters is  reported done @ US $ 14,000

Main differences from 2014 to now is on the bunkers value, back in March 2014, the barrel was above US $107 and exchange rate Euro/usd was hovering around 1,40 while today it’s around 1.19.

For once shipowners will not rush to fix before the week-end and discussing w/ various ones today, their mood is rather to be in a waiting position rather than jump on proposals, they’re confident to get charterers fighting one against each other to have the “privilege” to get the ship.

Still difficult to get an expert analysis on why market is going this way. Some are trying to tell the newbuilding activity has not been as good as it is currently for years, but again Newbuilding orders movements is only a consequence on the market of the faith investors has in the market recovery and not the other way round.

You should have a go on these figures and analysis dropped by Baltic Exchange,  “2016 was the worst year in newbuilding activity in the last 25 yrs, with highest number of new orders in one month which was 9, in july 2017, 48 orders was placed and respectively 34 in august 2017”. When as a consequence, prices are hitting their highest in the last 21 months. On the paper, it’s looking like same, all routes at least on the Capes are showing an increase until end 2018.

Key question remains to know if the newbuilding activity is thanks to cheap money with easy access to finance or preferably thanks to strong and reliable cable (unlike this journalist) and strong cargoes movements.

We anyway have bit of time ahead of us before these newbuildings will hit the market and maybe we shall be thankful to all these current and future shipowners for their vista.

On the spot, I still think there is not too much time ahead of charterers to fix the remaining prompt ships around.








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