Don’t get caught by market resilience or you’ll get stucked

Looking like all the shipowners’ stars are aligned and whichever your position, whichever your size, as soon as Owners offering a modern ship to fix they are back with the luxury to pick and choose what’s fitting best to their interest.

On the handies, yesterday +333 (half diabolic figure then) on the HS3, making on the paper the 28kdwt being worth now 11,679 $ daily. Knowing this 28kdwt index type has become “an odd size” (to steal bmti’s words), on the real life, 33/34kdwt which are more popular are able to get +$13,000 today, around $15,000 according to BMTI’s writers. (Another + $2.50pmt on a handy grains Upr to Morocco)

The USG market is proving to be resilient after (during) the local dramatic meteorlogical events. When owners asked for a premium to consider heading toward this area, it’s also now showing to be a good place to be for owners, as long as, it remains safe.

Continental and Baltic market is also offering strong numbers, +$10,000 for handy owners to end up to ECSA, supposed to be a repositioning trade!

To add some pain to charterers’ wallet, oil is moving on the upward, yesterday $55.43 for the barrel of Brent crude future, is a figure which has not been seen for a while. Keeping going this way, 15.5% rise can be expected for this quarter, last time it moved up as quickly, we need to go back to 2004. On a handy, Ecsa to Wmed, the bunker price difference from end august compared to now is worth $0.87 / mt on the freight.

While we can easily understand some local movements and the Oil upward, it’s a kind of a task to be able to explain with all rationnals behind why market is back to this revival why now and why so quickly? Yes, usually Q4 is a good season in the drybulk Industry, with needs for coal to prepare chilly winter, yes the Grains are harvested and ready to be moved, yes the USG hurricanes are breaking the balanced positions. But is it enough to explain? I’d rather quickly find a good expert to have his deep analysis, when found here, I’ll share with you.

Looking bit backward (Source Alphabulk), collectively, US listed dry bulk shipping companies have lost in Q2 2017 close to $132 Million, to be added or deducted (depending if you are a share older or a banker involved) to $187.5million loss in Q1 2017. For 2017, as a whole, $600million lost in the sea could be the projection. could be less if market keeps his current mood, could be more if, in an usual excess of confidence, they go shopping for brand new ships.

Whatever will be US big boys’ move, emergency is, I think, for charterers to

“keep calm and fix” and guess what, at Pelagos we are happy to fix quietly. Looking like there is a match

regards

Jerome

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s