who’s leading the tempo in the tango?

 

10years experience, is starting to be somehow something right ? Even in shipping were people love to say

  • « in shipping the learning curve is not comparable to any other business as you keep learning everyday »

or

  • « shipping is like high mountain guide : a good high mountain guide is not existing really, only old ones may count ».

So if you read Bmti’s today report stating « the chartering market is trading on a fertile ground that has been unheard of in the last 9-10 years. »  Does it mean, a shipping guy who has 10 years experience will have to forget all the negotiations skills he managed to pile up in his pocket and start again from scratch?

It’s something like 10 years now that charterers are giving the tempo and leading the waltz. Waltz according to few reports is becoming an argentinean tango with Owners deciding about the timing and the right clause. Surely if the market keeps going this way, some may get caught by surprise with clauses being back into owners’s favor… sshex terms, forget the « ntc eiu » but welcome back the « ntc uu ». Forget about the APS and be prepared to swallow the DOP retro…

in all honesty sure the confidence is back on owners shoulders but the market movement up remaining quite fragile. Even though I would be tempted to say Index are probably bit late compared to physical market, today’s index, Bdi is down back to 1,200, Capers losing 25pts, panamax cooling down a bit and Supras/handies +2, just for the sake of saying we keep moving up.

And reading some market reports, « la vie en Rose » is still not right here… « spasmodic activity for the big ships » / « Ultramax/supramax a quiet day for reported fixtures […] lack of new enquiry putting pressure on the tonnages available » / « handysize : overall a slow day »…

For instance, we were reading yesterday « Pacific Basin Ceo hoping for higher bunker prices, as high bunker prices would mak ships sail slower, which could help reduce overcapacity in the drybulk market »… and looking at bunkers prices, it seems Mats Berglund (PacBasin’s boss) need to improve his influencing skills towards OPEC’s member (or Trump’s administration maybe)…. Or the world according to this chart

opec's influence

when on the other side, we are astonished to realize some bunkers suppliers do not hesitate to syphon tanks while deliverying bunkers.syphonning

Looking for future in shipping, 2030 ? some will say in Copenhagen, ships will be 3d printed.

I told you « La vie en rose » for owners ? maybe tomorrow, but not today.

Regards

Jerome

 

 

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