getting bigger or stronger is not only a fitness issue (allegory)

Not sure what this means…”china’s Shipbuilding strategy has changed from “getting bigger” to “getting stronger” “

china

but we’ll get back to this further below in today’s shipping/chartering market comment

Chartering Market being up is a true undiscussable fact. Today BDI’s back above the 1’000 points mark. Last time it was above, we need to get back to mid December 2016, and it was getting down. Last time market did this move from below 1,000 to above, we need to get back to almost « pre Trump election era » ie 10th november 2016. It’s a quarter ago, already.

Traditionnally all experts like to say « shipping market Q1 is always slow and low and we start to see market going up in Q2 ». I don’t know if the market will be following the tradition but it looks like it’s taking this path.

Putting aside the fundamental shipping issue and the oversupply of tonnage, BMTI’s today’s report is fairly positive. « Economic Recovery » could be the « invisible hand of the market ». Focusing on BHSI, all routes are up and the two basins PACIFIC and ATLANTIC are showing being more and more balance. Same on the in bound/out bound or front/back haul whichever owners final destination, it seems they’ll get more money on their next shipment than on the current one.

I won’t disclose  a strategic information about Pelagos, while telling you we are doing (not only but) quite a lot of handies to Wmed destination (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) and we are facing new excuses from owners not willing to consider the trades we are proposing (on behalf of our charterers of course) :

When ships are open in Baltic/continent we get  « well, view market movement, I’m not here to consider ending up being open in Wmed. Either I’ll go for a Blsea destination or even better USG or ECSA cargo »

When Ships are open in ECSA we got somehow the same reply “ending up in Wmed, thanks but not thanks unless charterers here to cover my ballast costs to end up in Amesterdam/ghent range.”

why Owners becoming somehow reluctant (or less attracted) with these businesses ? Probably they want to cash in as quickly as possible (they also probably need to cash in), also there might be some worriness around this market surge not lasting and none are unwilling to miss the current opportunity.

Weather is and will also surely helping market to get defrosted, as Nikolayev ice campaign is over (thanks ISM for the full info), once in land logistic in Russia and Ukrain will be back and running, view the remaining grains stock ready to be exported we may expect Black Sea to become more and more the center of shipping attention. (black could be the new Orange then?!) Lakes season is not yet open but slowly and surely we’re getting there.

Mv ‘fadelsia’ 36kdwat reported fixed for 4/6months period from ECSA redel Atlantic at $9,000 daily is starting to be somehow a solid number. For your records, looking like vessel was said done last week at $10’000 daily for a tctrip ex ECSA to Wmed (mv nord savannah 37,000 (13) del dop paranagua ppt, tct via recalada, redel med)

On the bunkers side,

Last OPEC decision are delivering slowly the expected results on the prices, as highlighted to us today by BMS united bunkers « Average oil prices are expected to be lower in the next 10 months of this year than in January and February due to a recovery in U.S. drilling activity, Fitch Ratings said in a report on Monday. »

On the grain side,

  • still bit of work to be done before Africa’s getting self-sufficient in wheat production Ironically, their incapacity to produce their bread with their own production is the « daily bread » for lots of people reading this report, including us.
  • Dreyfus investing bit of money in Usa for this « truck to barge » facility in the Mississippi River.

On the shipping side,

Back to the mention ship building activity mentionned in introduction to this report, I have found this one for you, which is showing some interesting data about shipping where I highlight below you few facts mentionned

  • For 70% of the last 25 years the market was trading below trend. Most of the money was made between 2004 and 2008
  • If the dry market recovers in 2021 this cycle (from 1st year of market picking up to the the start of the next peak) will have lasted 17 years… longest cycle ever. (when in other economics area cycles getting shorter and shorter)
  • In 1966 sea import trade was 1.8 billion tonnes – 10.2 billion tonnes in 2016

Have a nice afternoon and don’t forget we can help you to be part of these billion tonnes needed to be shipped in the months to come.

Jerome

 

 

 

 

 

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