Are we all Kanye West ? According to various reports read about 2016 and 2017 , I’m tempted to say yes we are, up to a certain extent only. Most of the market experts who are sharing their view for the coming year (well the current one) have also been mentioning shipping market have seen the bottom in 2016. A big, large one, one which we can hardly go around. Bit like Kanye’s wife one. Then once we managed to take the full picture of this bottom and realized how an unique is the experience to go through, like Kanye, market players might need for a strong therapy to fight stress and exhaustion (officially) or depression and fear (unofficially).
The correspondants who shared their point of view, at least on the drybulk sector in the Atlantic are also almost unanimously recognizing having been caught by surprise with the market upward trend seen in the last couple of months of 2016. Obviously, the revenue of our shipping experts are very closely linked to the market level, hence the higher the better for their Ebitda. With no surprise, not much have been complaining about this upward. Go on the other side of the mirror, ask the charterers, and with no surprise they did not love that much about this sudden and unexpected jump.
As Bmti is summarizing, shipping is « a mysterious beast » and very hard to predict. Yes some fundamentals remain the sames, tonnage supply, oil price, commodity stocks and needs. Peter Sand (BIMCO) state in attached document « In shipping we rely on global imbalances in raw materials, energy and manufacturing facilities ». Taking Peter’s (BIMCO) comment litterally and even going further « the more unbalanced is our world, the better for shipping ». In this prospect 2017 shall be a good year for shipping.
The good news, you all have been through 2016 quite successfully (stating that being still here on jan 2nd is already a kind a achievement) , and has Kanye says :
« N-now th-that that don’t kill me
Can only make me stronger».
check it here stronger
Looking for some other deep thoughts, I have found out one nice in BMTI’s today’s market report. To the question “what unforseen forces will play a larger part in 2017 ?” our lovely guy replied “I think that what makes them unforeseen is that you cannot foresee them”. Please note he only thinks which means he is not quite sure.
Let me wish you a great 2017 year and without too much risk, I can foresee it may last something like 12 months. Let’s make those exciting.