good news often comes with bad news

Good day, good morning,

BMTI guys seems to be sleeping today or digesting the turkey, so no daily report to support my daily thoughts. Luckily, I still have few things to tell you about the market and the way things are going. Good news are also bad news, just a matter of on which side of the mirror you stand, just ask the thanksgiving turkey what their opinion on this.

Cofco Pallice to Tunisia is rumored on the market finally gone at 23usdpmt. Good news or bad news ? If true, it’s 5usdpmt above what charterers were aiming for when out on the market. To put a bit of perspective, it’s $125’000 extra out of charterers pockets, converted into Owners’ mind it’s around $3’300 daily for owners benefit (estimated duration being about 37/38 days -contractual + 3 days extra for wheather/bunkering).

US $3’300 daily was handy continent market value back in feb/march for similar run. Will owners be able to enjoy this money in his bank account ? Not quite sure, it depends from his financial structure and or whether some loans are still in the air financing for the ship. According to Financial Times article, which you can find here,financial times (but need to be Financial Times subscriber) « NordLB warns on €1bn loss for year as shipping loans bite ». €1bn loss in 1 year !

Not in the article, but to cover the loss, NordLB bank is certainly hoping to get 8’000 other similar fixtures from their Owners portfolio in the next 4 weeks. Who knows it may happen. Anyway please don’t worry too much about the bank , the article is concluding with the quote of Dr Gunter Dunkel (the boss of said bank) « despite this […] the bank was aiming to make a profit in 2017 ». The only thing which worries me a bit about NordLB bank is if they gave a loan and long credit line to Cofco in a hedging process, in which case, they’re not out of the woods yet.

Good news also for Owners trading in the Baltic/Black Sea/Med region, they’ll soon have some support from The NATO security Marine, whose ships are going to shift from fighting piracy close to Somalia Coast to come and counter the human smuggling in the Mediterranean area. For owners trading in indian Ocean, this could be a bad news as they might feel bit lonely in case Pirats reading Reuters, and the latters realize they will be left free to do what they want to do in the months to come. Full article here free the somalian pirats

On the handies, USG remains very strong, we understood a 2016 built 37kdwat has been covered on DOP (ecmex) for a tct to Morocco in the US$ 15’500/16’000 usd daily. When bit smaller (34kdwat), older (2012 built) ship covered for similar biz (dop ecmex) at US$ 13’000 daily. Checking vsl’s specs,

  • the 2016 one is giving « 14,2(L)/14,8(B) KN ON ABT 23.9 MT IFO 380 CST »
  • when the 2012 one is burning « ABT 13.8K LDN ON ABT 28.1MT IFO / ABT 14K BLST ON ABT 27.3MT IFO, NDAS ».

Bss today’s IFO 380 price in Houston, @ US$ 261/ MT, on 17 days voyage at sea, the 2016 built lady shall be cheaper on the bunker conso by abt US$20’000. Finally as a comparison, yesterday’s BHSI HS4 US Gulf trip via US Gulf or north coast South America to Skaw-Passero on handy index type (which is still a 28000dwt) was at US$ 11’ 286 with +507 Vs the day before.

The very good news will be when Baltic Dry Exchange will update their Index type Vsl’s and will be more in line with the modern fleet we can see on the water. (this might also help the Baltic panelists !).

Don’t forget today’s is Friday, good news, still few hours to go for the traditional Friday fixing. I’m waiting yours if you don’t want this Friday info turning into a bad news. The ball is on your side !

Regards

Jerome

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