atlantic handies turning point? Black Sea needs bit of attention

Good day,

Today’s Baltic Index report is showing :

Done on 1 tct

  • ‘Ugo De Carlini’ 2010 176’153 dwt dely CJK mid Nov tct via EC Australia redel China $8,250 daily
  • ‘Anangel Transporter’ 2010 179’719 dwt dely Rotterdam 10/15 Nov trip via PDM to Fos $14,500 daily

Last Thursday we were reported these fixtures

  • ‘Anangel Hope’ 2015 179’445 dwt dely Flushing 06 /08 Nov trip via Baltimo reredel India $18,000 daily
  • ‘Nightkiss’ 2015 179’354 dwt dely CJK 06/08 Nov trip via Australia option Brazil redel Singapore-Japan $10,500 daily

Then in today’s report done on 12 months period

  • Tom Selmer’ 2011 175’219 dwt dely CJK 05/07 Nov 12 months trading redel worldwide approx. $8,000 daily

Owners of TOM SELMER are surely happy to have secured a 3Million USD deal on her, knowing same (based in Cyprus) owners are dealing with 10 ships 5 supras, 5 capers. Meantime, just for the purpose of running figures,

  • @ agreed rate (let say $8’000 daily) : 1 year revenue is at $2’920’000
  • @ today’s weighted value, $10’733 daily : 1 year revenue is at $3’917’545
  • @ 3rd nov weighted value, $9’893 daily : 1 year revenue is at $3’610’945

We can all appreciate a one year period is worth a discount for the charterers, difficult to assess if the discount shall be worth $1million usd or more or less. Let’s believe both owners and charterers are happy with this deal.

Jumping directly on the smaller sisters, ie the handies, interesting to have a look on the index again, Skaw passero origin (HS1 HS2) are remaining on the upward trend while origin ex USG or ECSA (HS3 and HS4) are now showing some signals of cooling down. Converted into next shipments, it probably means Continent/ Baltic/ Blsea origin will remain relatively strong. We are not seeing too many grains shipments from Baltic or continent. Discussing with owners, they’re seeing above $6000 ex baltic to USEC on fertilizers on 35+dwat ladies.

Ex Black Sea, identified as being grains, we can see quite few requirements such like

  • supra/ultra del black sea ppt onw tct with grains redel india/bdesh rnge
  • 28/32KDWAT DELY CONSTANTZA 13/17 NOV 1TCT WHEAT REDEL CENTRAL MED
  • supra-ultra dely Bl.Sea 18-22 nov tct redly A-R-A-G
  • NIKO (Ukraine) / SALALAH (Oman) 000/10 CORN – 8.000 / 4.000 – 1 DEC ONW
  • 52-64K DELY TO MAKE 1 SP UKRAINE 14TH NOV ONWARD TCT INT GRAIN TO FEAST
  • 1 tct trip via Bsea Dely Bsea/Canakkle/Emed cgo-grains rdly PG pico (excl I/I) Spot prompt

 

Ex ECSA, handy shipment for month end are in line with the index, when we could have expected the figures to keep moving up, on tbn basis charterers looking for grains ex ecsa to Wmed are proposed 2-3 usd pmt below the previous done (1 week ago). I still believe the timing for fixing will be key for charterers to avoid being caught with no more tonnage able to tender nor before the 30th of November. The fixture of mv ‘Nord Auckland’ 37kdwt blt 2011 from Rio Grande to Skaw Med at $7’000 is clearly showing this colling down movement.

On the shipping side, you have probably seen this info http://splash247.com/carisbrooke-nova-marine-consolidate-shipmanagement-lugano/, and we shall all get used to merging movements on the owners side.

Reading few reports, Turkey is under cautious watch from the market analysts. “ beware of a likely civil war (in Turkey) ». You can also find some more here  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-06/amundi-sees-turkey-turmoil-worsening-as-markets-go-into-nosedive and for sure we shall not forget, Turkey is a major player in the shipping world, this is the entrance/exit door to black Sea, this country also have many owners playing in our segment, and Turkey is an important drybulk commodity importer/exporter. Uncertainty in this Country will surely have an impact on the local market, as off now, I would bet Owners who are always very cautious when it comes to political movements, will raise up their ideas for trading in this area.

What about USA ? let’s see tomorrow.

Have a nice evening

Rgds

Jerome

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