If somebody can explain me, I would love to understand how this can work :
Today’s (dated 8th oct) BHSI states
- +4pts heading to 417,
- when HS3 (ECSA to Skaw pass) is making a massive gain of +500points. (Yes today + 500 is kind of massive), it’s about + 8% in one day, heading to 6161usd daily value
- When HS4 (usg Ncsa to Skaw pass) is gaining +164, heading to touch below 6500.
- Other route are lossing from 7 to 40 points.
I fear I understood on my own, the weighted average is somehow offsetting the gains seens on the HS3 and HS4.
In the meantime, on the physical side, we can see ships waiting for almost 10 days before tendering NOR in ECSA and charterers open these routes are still seeing quite sharp figures. Maybe this fixture reported ‘Assimina 11’ 20 0 7 30 54 1 dwt dely New Amsterdam prompt trip redel Black Sea $7,500 daily – Oldendorff, New Amsterdam, as all of you know is in NCSA is a first signal for a change in Handies from East Coast Altantic.
Ex USG, is there a weather effect to get these figures, owners being concerned with storms and typhoons ? Complete opposite is reported in BMTI, « handy bulk viewpoint section », bmti quote « Atlantic market is down to fairly unexciting levels ». I try never to say this but I guess the coming days will be interesting to see. If there is a real upward trend or if the figures seen today on these routes are somehow announcing a revival. For time being, usual game. Owners seeing market being on fire, while charterers feign not to have seen anything looking like an upward. From the continent Grain activity …
Anyway, I’m just realizing I’m trying to write down clever things and it seems today I won’t make it.
So, let me just share this one with you
I’m wondering if the content is interesting or funny or just out of purpose or if I misunderstood everything (might be all of those)!
While reading :
- « the Suez Canal Authority is in discussions with a number of the world’s leading containerlines in a move that could intensify the battle for business the waterway is fighting with the expanded Panama Canal. »
One shall warn Suez Canal Authority, the containerlines business is in the middle of huge changes and they shall be well advised to be sure who they are talking to. Who can say which companies are going to be still here tomorrow ?
Then reading :
- « Egyptian authorities are pushing for the largest lines including Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM, to sign up to a new pricing structure where discounts are offered if the shipping firms agree to pay for three years in advance rather than the traditional model of individual transit contracts. »
Who is a volunteer to explain to Egyptian Authorities, main issue which is faced by Containers players is the lack of cash ahead of them ? And I would be very surprised (but I might be wrong), any of these Companies will jump on a Million USD deal (even if it’s a real bargain) paying three years in advance knowing these companies have surely no clue which is the number of Suez Passage they’ll have to buy and what will be the structure of the routes in the months to come.
Then reading as a conclusion
- “The canal had been attracting greater business from boxlines heading from Asia to the US East Coast prior to the opening of the expanded Panama Canal earlier this year. However, the revamped Central American waterway has since clawed back most of this traffic.”
Finally the battle between Suez and Panama canal is in the air. Sure the timing of these new set up is completly wrong and we can surely assume tomorrow’s decision whether to go through Suez or Panama or the Capes is led by economics but also time saved, bunker burnt, committments to « quick deliveries » shipping companies may make to get competitive advantage and quite a lot of various external needs. Who knows, one day a new Environment law might come in and force shipowners to go through the quickest route (ie through the canals) to minimize gaz emission… If such is coming in, what’s the point to make a Canal passage promotion ?
If I may suggest something bit more simple with immediate effect to Suez Canal Authorities, guys go for a promo, like the Pizza, “buy 1 get 1 for free”.
Keep things simple, it works for the Pizza (and coffee)
let’s believe it works for shipping.
Have a nice evening and Dear Canal Authorities, you’re welcome