If you’re wondering what’s going on in the Great Lakes, being quite a specific market, here below a summary of the activity year to date compared to 2015, (source Great Lakes Seaway Partnership)
- « The St. Lawrence Seaway reported that year-to-date cargo shipments for the period March 21 to September 30 were 21 million metric tons, down 5.32 percent over the same period in 2015. The dry bulk category was down 11 percent. Iron ore was down 13 percent; coal was down15 percent. While the general cargo category was down 3 percent overall, steel slabs and other general cargo were up 41.5 percent and nearly 6 percent respectively. »
But this would not be fair to remain on these mainly « down » figures, as the same report is also stating
- « Notable increases were reflected in the export of wheat, corn and soybeans from the U.S. Ports of Duluth, Milwaukee and Toledo during the month of September,” said Betty Sutton, Administrator of the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation. “The good news is that we anticipate that trend to continue for the remaining three months of the 2016 navigation season.”
So, reading between the lines, if you are planning to move grains from the Lakes in the remaining 2016 months, and you’re not covered yet, it would be wise to start working on your shipment, now.
On the index, today’s BDI is falling back below the 900 mark, which is a kind of a non event we all have to admit. The remarkable information is when you notice, BDI in 2015 highest peak was at 941 points on sept 22nd. To find out this level, we need to go back one year ago, on 24th sept 2015 BDI was at 943pts.The road of recovery from February 9th, when the BDI was at his lowest, ie 290 on 9th feb 2016, is a long and slow process. According to various reports we can read (inviting you again to read the Bimco report dated 6th October 2016), « it’s quite unlikely the sector will return to profitability before 2019 ». But Which index level is supposed to be showing profitability ?
HS3 and HS4 index are showing a kind of revival, which might lead to bit of pressure in the days to come for charterers which will have to load in October. Also charterers have to bare in mind bunkers prices are on the upward, only this can lead next shipment to be done 5/7% above the last done. Converted into usdpmt, on a handy, it can quickly be an equivalent of 30/35kusd more than expected. We understood a handy ex Germany to Algeria was booked yesterday at 1.50usdpmt above the previous one fixed last Friday. Is it only the bunker effect ?
On the grains side :
- Make your own opinion here
Mine ? after the bombs the bread.
- Saudia Arabia is on the wheat market to buy something like 500’000mt
- Russian wheat for syrian population
On Iron Ore (all below source Fairplay.ihs)
- « Chinese iron ore imports have outperformed expectations and the imports in September came in at 93 million tonnes, 8% more than the same month last year
- Year to date imports indicate imports of 1,017 million tonnes for the full year 2016, an increase from 953 million tonnes last year.»
- « Coal imports to China are likely to reach 240 million tonnes this year compared to 204 million tonnes recorded in 2015.»
On the Capes
- « overtonnaged market us unlikely to receive much help from demolition sales as the current spot freight rates are above the cash break-even level of 15-20-year old Capesize vessels.
- In addition, scrapping activity is higher in the first half of each year – in 2015, 68 Capesize vessels were sold for scrap in the first six months of the year and only 25 in the following six months, said Eirik Haavaldsen, shipping analyst at Pareto in Oslo on Tuesday.»
What about global dry fleet ?
- « In 2016, the global dry bulk carrier fleet has grown by 1.7% year to date and the figure should reach 2.0% for the full year.
- pace of growth would fall to an estimated 1.1% in 2017
- Raise to 1.8% in 2018 »
Don’t forget, to have a burger today, it’s international burger day… (yes it is)
Enjoy your diner