trying to find opportunity

Today’s weighted time charter Average on the Handies is still on decline at 5915usd daily,

  • No route above 6’600usd
  • The spread between the best one (HS6 @ 6’539) and the worse one ( HS3 @ 5’164) is only showing 1’375usd daily difference.
  • The only route up is the HS4 (usg to skw pass, up by 32pts, remaining in the 6000+ daily)

Again and as said in a previous report, the concept of « repositionning business » or to take the words of the bigger sisters « Front/back haul » is for time being not in the air anymore. Handy owners are left with pretty much no other choice than keep trying to fix something making some kind of sense on the money and hoping the destination where they’re going to end up becoming by some magic the right place to be.

As mentionned by BMTI, on the Baltic/Continent market is getting filled up by ships quicker than cargoes coming out. No change, I keep believing we are in a market where charterers who can afford to remain behind their low ideas, ending up to find a taker. For charterers, timing is a key, patience a  paying off virtue. Black Sea keeps attracting owners ballasting from Gibraltar or West Med, but according to what we see/hear the momentum is cooling down right now. Difficult to say if it’s going to be a real trend or just a quick pause, before starting again. Today’s BDI, reporting mv ‘KBS Star’ 07 30’548 dwt dely Nemrut Bay prompt trip via Black Sea redel Algeria $8,000 daily. On the basis of a 30’000 5pct wheat stem ex nikatera with 7000x in to Algiers with 2500x out, this is giving voyage equivalent at something touch below 20usdpmt. (When last week, we were estimating the voyage equivalent above 20usdpmt). This about 1-2.00 usd takes also into account the bunkers upward movement.

ECSA, BMTI is summarizing quite well the challenge owners have to face « owners needs to be prepared to accept a waiting time to make the desired laydays »… For sure on one hand, owners are for instance all hoping for a ECSA market blip, hence postponing up to the last moment to commit themselves on the cargoes, on the other side, waiting and hoping for better days, as an impact on the 7days notices usually applying outthere.

Talking a bit about containers, about 6% of the fleet is under hot or cold lay-up. And yes containers are drybulk ships competitors. 3 to 8% of the Us grains exports are done through the boxes, freight being today the key decision factor for charterers. This means a challenging Marketing positionning for drybulk owners…

Let’s look at couple opportunities and probable close future market changes…

  • Port of New Orleans seems to be in the starting blocks to trade again with Cuba. New Cuborleans
  • Norway is the first country proposing his autonomous ships test site

Have a nice end of the day

Rgds

jerome

 

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