Gold medal of the best loser today is going to HS3 route… Well done

I’m trying to figure out if this is the market which is today slow or just my brain, which is trying to recover from the Belgium beer enjoyed yesterday in Antwerp for the “Antwerp Chartering Club”.

As we are not dealing (yet) into the Capers, it can only be the market being quiet.

Focusing on the Capers then, with Trans-Atlantic round voyages being currently about twice higher than it was 7 days ago, Continental front hauls at US$ 16’000. Up and down, are we allowed to call these movements “volatitily”? shall we be happy about this volatility, which is a signal for some dynamics?

All the smaller sizes are much quieter and let’s say the word quite worrying. Focusing on the Handies, you’ll have notice the concept of Front/Back haul (if same can be applied to this size), alternatively, we can call it “repositionning business” is about to disappear (Likewise the concept of moving from one basin to the other, to go out for money). Today almost wherever you are open with your ship and almost wherever you end up to, the daily value is remaining relatively flat (and realistically crap).

To ascertain this, let’s take today’s index, the gap between the cheaper route (namely HS3 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip to Skaw-Passero @5’431) and the most expensive one (namely HS6 South Korea-Japan trip via North Pacific to Singapore-Japan @6625 +7). This is only showing a gap of 1’194 usd daily.

Willing to claim there is some seasonality which enable to explain these?

Nope, sorry we can’t. Let’s have a look at the same BHSI report dated 1 year ago.

Who want to bet? Which route was the best for money?

I won, sorry, it’s the HS3, which were showing 12’427usd / day. The worst one was HS5 South East Asia trip via Australia to Spore-Japan was at 4’618 and for sake of comparison, HS6 was @ 5446. The delta was worth 7’809usd/day.

Back on this HS3 route, YoY, this route managed to lose more than 50% in one year, and managed to lose close to  25% of its value in the last 2 months.

The above statements are confirmed by Yesterday’s fixtures in the Bdi, one 28kdwat spot gone a 6.6kusd daily from ECSA to Skaw Pass, a 38kdwat dely continent redel Brazil done a 6.2kusd.

What’s wrong with handies ex ECSA? Nothing to export anymore? not even few Olympic medals left? shall we rename ECSA as follow LNWAFR (standing for Little New West Africa)?

To keep trying to make some analysis, BMTI pointing out in their “Handy bulk viewpoint” section “With the last quarter of this year approaching the market direction remains uncertain. Present conditions are very disappointing”. Change few letters in the “DISAPPOINTING” word and you get the word “DEPRESSING”. Excuse me but I won’t try to make some forecasts, I let the big experts doing it.

On the Chartering side, few fixtures reported shall interest most of the readers, based on Universal Baltimore and Hermann s fixture we can tell supras daily value for the scrap ex North continent to Emed is worth on average 8’750. Same size, via baltic with grains to WMED is hitting touch above 9Kusd daily.

On the bunkers, oil prices is showing some upward signals but nothing drastic.

Wishing you a great week-end and of course if you wish to fix during this week-end, don’t be shy, call my colleagues.

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