It seems market do not really know where to go. Up? Down? remain where it is now? If I were to describe chartering market with some simple words, words I can easily understand, (I’ m a simple guy, maybe even simplist) , let me ask you
-have you ever seen a cat on a burning roof?
no matter the answer, you can picture it yourself , well current market is kind of similar, he does not know on which leg he shall stand to avoid the burning pain.
Yesterday market mood was fairly negative and today pretty much enthusatic and so index are. Yesterday’s index quoted in bdi are all back up to North thanks to apparently new fresh enquiries which are out. On the Supras handies size, the upward is more limited and reaching the north pole, at this rythm will take a bit of a while. But never mind, let’s believe market is taking the right direction. Focusing on the fixtures reported attached, on the Supramaxes with origin around us, the Cs Soraya reported fixed dely livorno at 10’600usd to end up to Spore-Japan range, is in a way confirm my yesterday comment. Assuming it is going through Black Sea, this means for charterers 3.5 days on their account before reaching Canakkale, this is about 10% of the total duration (on quick terms and all going well). Knowing the S1B route was yesterday at 11’321 Ex USG comparable ship, for the same destination is getting 11’650usd daily which is out performing all BSI routes. On the handies/handymax still from the reported Bdi fixtures, Owners of Nordic Riga 35kdwt can be awarded owners of the week, being able to grasp 10’000usd for a scrap cargo dely Liverpool redel Emed is quite a nice move. This is leading owners to claim “handy continent market is on fire”. I’m not quite sure, I would rather say the Continent market has become lately a position market. When owners open there with the right ship with the right dates on which you add a bit of savoir-faire (the other way to say luck) then you get nice number. Knowing Scrap is worth a premium (compared to grains) Other handies reported, out of 5, 4 are done Canakkale and 5something is the magic number for intermed business. View amount of cargoes out one could think market will likely go up but counting positions
received here since Monday bss
- open BLSEA/EMED
- spot up to 23rd august
- max 25yrs old,
we can still find about 35 ships being in position.
Same list but with ships able to be delivered in Canakkale within 7 days, we are down to a rugby team with 15 ships teaming up.
To conclude with this report, info on the S&P market which is obviously linked to the chartering one. Not sure knowing 371 bulk carriers units have been changing Ownership, as anyway it often remains quite unclear who and where is based the Company owning the ship. On the demolition side, if prices have reached their bottom, we can assume owners are less in demand to send their ladies in the backyard.
What else to say? Chartering market is not the only one to be like a cat on a burning roof. If you go through this, everything but not informative – in my opinion only, article found here: crude prices? from 25 to 90$
You’ll realize that we do not have an easy job compared to bankers, who can tell looking at you right in the eyes:
“Oil trading in the extremely wide ranges of $25 to $90 per barrel is a distinct possibility over the next three or four years”
which translated into bunkers prices means
“Ship & Bunker data suggests that based on recent trends, crude in the $25-$90/bbl range could put the range for IFO380 bunkers in the primary ports as low as $100 per metric tonne (pmt), and as high as $500 pmt”
Having difficulties to predict tomorrow’s market in any commodity available shall prevent a specialist to say “prices? go from $25 to $90 and you’re safe and covered”… I can see from here my principals asking me to run a freight estimate for 30’000 10pct blk wheat rouen to Algeria for November shipment, if I tell him “put in your books a range from 10 to 40usdpmt and you’re safe, but please take these estimates as brokers only without guarantee”…
in case you forgot, we are at your disposal for sharp or fanciful numbers.