“Difficult times these for all tonnage types with the ‘more cargo needed if further losses are not to be seen’ comment on most market reports. What for the future? Well certainly Owners/ Operators continue to be optimistic for 4th quarter and beyond with some suggesting that once the Olympics are over there will be an immediate and sharp reversal in fortunes. What one has to consider is that if this does not happen will this hit the market even harder than anyone expects?”
this above is a quotation from famous former Ldens report edited on 7th august 2008. What has changed since then?
Remember exactly 8 years ago it was the kick off for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The beginning of the falling from the cliff process on the BDI. Few, at that time, were starting to say, “now, China has done the whole window dressing works to show to the World how great is the country, China will start stopping importing as much commodity as done in the past years and it’s pretty likely the Seaborne Market will be hit and the freight market will decline in the months to come”. Then Lehmann-Brothers arrived with the subprime and it was the knockout for shipping and what happened since then is known by everybody.
Some figures read in couple of reports are showing – if still needed -the poor situation which has to be faced by owners. On the Capes, Pacific Voyages hover at around US$4/mt with apparently a “modest upside”. Back on 8th aug 2008, this fixture was reported ‘Cape Island’ 2004 160000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 1/10 Sept $27.00 fio sc/30000sc –
On the Panamax, US$ 5,000 daily is the consensus value for round voyages between continent and USG. 8 years ago, it was asf “‘Nordmosel’ 2001 75257 dwt dely USGulf 18/20 August trip redel Mediterranean $65000 daily + $1 million bb – STX Pan Ocean”
On the handies, according to BMTI, BLSEA is also losing his momentum, knowing only the commission which is going to be charged by the brokers involved a 34kdwat seems to have been fixed at/or close to US$ 4’000 daily. No need to go back to 2008 to see fixtures for similar vsl/trip being done at daily hire twice higher. Ex WMED to USG, similar size Vessel was offered at US$ 6’500 until owners realized to be competitive they had to sharpen their ideas by US$1’500 daily…
For sure today’s general sentiment is fairly negative when it comes to give a picture of the current chartering market and concerns about getting back close to levels seen on the 1st quarter of 2016 are mentionned.
We remain to be positive so please don’t forget today’s 8 august, is also the international cat day. What’s the link with shipping you’ll ask me? The answer is here, http://maritime-executive.com/features/a-day-for-five-hundred-million-cats. And you’ll be pleased to learn the long lasting relationship between cats&ships (very different from the brits’ famous fish&chips).
And our industry is and will be like unsinkable Sam where you can read his history here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsinkable_Sam
all in all, to conclude today’s report, back again with a quotation of Robert’s report @ Ldens done on 7th aug 2008 “Interesting comments and certainly some that we concur with though of course over the last years it’s clearly become more difficult to predict our market than ever before but there again we haven’t had a global ‘credit crunch’ and ‘financial problems or inflationary problems for quite some time with the final results yet to be seen.”
Have a nice day and don’t forget pelagos is available to bridge the gap between owners ideas and charterers’ ones to end up to a balance fixture, done bit better than current market level, always in our principals’ favours, obviously.