Bmti is reinventing today the concept of “PERIOD” in shipping. As we can read in their PERIOD section (in the list of fixtures) they are reporting this fixture “Dely Geelong ppt 10/15 days coastal trade / unknown chrtrs fixed mv ‘Hamburg pearl’ 39’500dwt blt 16 done @ $11,000″. 10/15 days, let’s call it a Super Short Period which may explain the money obtained from owners. We can wonder then if the ship would have been fixed for a Short TCT if the money would have been the same. For sure 11kusd is kind of very good money and surely owners took advantage of being open at the right time at the right place with no competitor around.
On the chartering side, we can pretend being super busy, fixing ships, doing Super Short periods, Tct, Voyages and being surrounded by cargoes from everywhere with owners hot to fix and thanks to some magic mojo, all goes quickly and smoothly. But the reality is bit less exciting I have to admit. And I don’t think the situation we are facing in our shop is unique, (eventhough I like to believe Pelagos is unique). After a rally up, all the players are checking the index, all are seeing the movement down on the supras and bigger and now it’s charterers’ time to play the clock and wait for market to calm down. Surely also we are last week of July and shipments which had to be made for July are covered, if not, paying $2 extra on the freight won’t anyway make the ship coming quicker at the loadport.
Appart from that on the chartering side, not much to add. Nothing new, unless you’re a short Sea/Coaster player. We can note they feel like Black Sea momentum is about deflate or if not, stopping to go up. We tend to agree with this, and as an example -and we know that one fixture does not set the market- on a Front Haul with a supra/ultramax tonnage with grains, to be shipped first half august about 30 ships were technically able to consider and charterers have managed to cover fairly quickly this stem at their level (or close to) which according to our tce is giving bit less than touch below 11’000usd daily dely Canakkale redel spore Japan range, our calculations being based on a modern nice ultramax.
For your benchmark today’s index are at on supras S1B Canakkale trip to Singapore-Japan 52454 11804 -121 / on panamax P2A_03 Skaw-Gibraltar trip to Taiwan-Japan 74000 10708 -238
In addition to the above, Bunkers prices is likely to go down, in the weeks, months to come. And if you’re willing to believe what’s Morgan Stanley has to say about this, you can find some more input here: petrol at $35 with for instance “While Morgan Stanley doesn’t say exactly where it sees oil bottoming this year, it seems safe to assume that “mid-30s” suggests a price of around $35 per barrel.”
It’s also interesting to read on one hand, that “Glencore CEO Confident of Revival in Commodities Market” with some explanations on the reasons why mister Ivan Glasenberg is keen to smile in this article dtd 25th july 2016. glencore smiling? While same Company, Glencore, is said by Reuters on tuesday 26th with article titled: “Looming price falls may force big miners to speed up asset sales” with the introduction sentence in the article being “[…] with a recent rally in commodities prices seen as short-lived.” Full article here glencore not smiling for too long
In short, I would be tempted to tell you not to believe what you read but then it will means no point for more Pelagos market review… Which to be positive would also mean for me more time to reinvent the shipping world and try to fix Extra Super Short Period. I’ll tell you tomorrow how I managed. Shall you want to be the owners/ charterers involved in this nice fixture, please call.