onions or crocodile tears

Bdi is showing some signals of cooling a bit and even today’s Index is down by 2 points. Mainly driven by Capes correction. Nothing to be too worried about and one could have expected at some stage this small correction.

As discussed with some charterers earlier today, it is always a difficult task to be a broker when the market is changing, especially when the market changing quite drastically. On one side, charterers which have been used to get the market 99% in their favor are failing to understand (and or struggling to face) the change. They are also trying to minimize the change upward which is obviously a fair strategy in order to secure the fixtures at their booking levels. While on the other side, owners are doing the exact opposite and we can hear that the market “is on fire” or “reaching sky high level” and of course owners’ interest are to emphasize this movement up, to secure for once a good fixture, above the opex levels. In summary, I, as a broker, feel like being the onions of the industry. Whenever principals talks to me, they are crying and trying to get me to obtain better from what the market can propose. Depending on how the market is moving I got charterers or owners tears. That’s fine, don’t worry, I cope with this thanks to a nice renewed stock of handkerchief.

I let the shipping experts trying to explain why the market has been moving up, quite quickly and relatively quite high in some segments of our Drybulk sector but for sure market is going due to a lack of tonnage available. But where are all the ships gone? according to my estimates and what we can see/hear/do here, on the handies,

.ex Baltic to Wmed, chrtrs are proposed 7’250/7’500usdpdpr dely skaw,

.ex cont to Wmed, chrtrs are proposed 6’750/7’000usdpdpr dely gib,

.ex cont to wafr, chrtrs are proposed 8’000/8’250 usdpdpr dely gib

.ex Blsea to WMED/cont chrtrs are proposed 6’750/7’000usdpdpr dely canakkale (and we remain very dubitative about the fixture mentionned yesterday and not corrected today on mv ‘sunrise’ 37kdwt at $8’500 dely blsea to USG.)

.ex USG to Med chrtrs are proposed 7’750/8’000usdpdpr aps

Still USG, but on the supras, quite few ships are still open spot there and not sure there will be enough requirements to make them gone for beginning of August. the S4A route being USG to skaw pass is losing today $138 and remain just above the 10’500 daily.

Of course while you read the above the “proposed” does not mean that owners will obtain for sure. It’s not granted neither that charterers chosing the wait and see strategy will get better rates  in the days to come.

If you’re after losy numbers, have a look at the Bmti report attached on the Container market review: “container volume from asia to Ecsa was down 28% in the first five months of 2016. On the Asia route some 30% of capacity has been cut in recent months […] compared to the rates at the same time during the last four years (Asia to South america)

2015 7th july   = 314/TEU   / 14th july = 286/TEU

2012 10th july = 1’907/TEU/ 17th july = 1’875/TEU

At these levels, the difference between losy and morbid is about to be narrowed.

have a nice end of day and again, shall you not be happy with what you are proposed please do not hesitate to ask us to try find something better, alternatively you can still blame me.

 

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