After offering you a break with my prose – I have to admit I had pretty much nothing to say yesterday- now market is inspiring me bit more, hence here I am. On Monday I was asking “if we are at a turning point on the handysize?”, the previous week I was highlighting some surprising high figures in the BLSEA (tce at 7000usd), still on the handysize. And out of a sudden market reports we can read and also other brokers or BDI are now on the same track about Blsea. (The shortcut to declare that I’m a trend setter is probably too much and thanks god for keeping me away from becoming a so called expert) but surely doing the exercice on a daily (or so) basis to try to share my sentiments on the market is helping to get some feelings. For once it seems I was not that far.
Focusing on the HANDIES, Continent grain activity is fairly poor and owners open around aiming for grains shall consider keeping the ships going further north to grab the ex baltic requirements which are likely to come in the next weeks. and already in the air either from Mukran or Poland or Muuga to name few of them alternatively, if open Wmed/central med, considering a ballast towards BLSEA could be a decent idea. Russia and Ukranian new crop are quickly arriving in the silos and view the exports forecast from these countries, at some stage, the market will need ships to move the stems. Glencore seems to have beeng caught with a spot cargo ex Romania to ARA at 12.6 usdpmt (w/ tce at about $7’000 daily according to experts!) shall give some confidence to owners open there… and as a butterfly effect, same shall bring some cold sweat to charterers having large books for the weeks to come ex this specific area. ((For your records and if willing to run your maths, the Glencore cargo is asf 35.000/10% Moloo Agriprod (sf 53’) ex Varna 6000x / Vourgas 6000x / Ctza 8000x / Ily 8000c to ARAG 8000x out Laycan 13-15/July 2,5addcom) and as you can see it was a spot requirement, which we were still seeing on the market yesterday morning and Freshly proposed on Friday 8th mid afternoon). Again, One fixture shall not do the market, Glencore hitted the market with a spot requirement, however to my opinion, charterers will need to find the right balance between getting on the market with forward dates and allowing then to have enough time to get the competition meantime opening the books now could also give info to owners with more cargoes to come… what’s Gasc doing?
I don’t know when these will have to be shipped and most probably it will make more sense on the larger ladies.
Ex ECSA, it is indeed fairly quiet, few sugar stem are seen on the market but according to what we are seeing by far too many ships around compare to requirements seen. Value for the HS3 is fairly likely to get below the 7000 in the days to come.
In Asia, the interest is also going up on this size and owners will probably ask for a higher premium to leave this area if your requirement is ending in Wafr.
On the industry side, Shipyards are also facing big hard time, see here
korean shipyard in destress?
have a nice day and we remain at your disposal