Last time BDI was above 700pts on nov 1st 2015 which was at 706. Today index dated 8th july 2016, the bdi hits 703. As french soccer team would say, there is no little victories.
Capers showing a sign of cooling down and charterers are therefore deciding to apply on 2 of them a 20 years contract. A good news for the spot market, 2 ships less.
If we stick to what we can read in BMTI, not enough Supras open in Continent in July and this might lead to a shortage of vessel in this area for the weeks to come then lead to “substantially higher rates in the days to come”. Let’s see but it is also permit to believe all supras which will be open in the next 3 weeks in this area being not seen on the open market yet and with end of Ramadam in Northern Africa countries, might also lead to quicker completion of discharging operations, hence bit more than the 12 supras seen by the brokers. (I count 14 off them including Baltic).
About the blsea, BTMI’s still the Ravenna stem mentionned to you yesterday, after discussing here with Handy Blsea expert, he finds my estimate at USD 6’000 daily for end july quite generous and to him it’s more equivalent to 4500/4750usd pdpr. The difference is coming from the total duration estimated on the voyage and how many extra days at port you insert in your calculations. I was estimating 2 extra days when my expert believes it shall be 3 extra days. We can argue about the relevancy on this extra day (knowing total duration is about 15/16 days) however as said previously, this is highlighting the difficulties to run voyage estimate and Tce equivalent accurately. There is so little margin on the revenue, each single extra cost for owners ruinning the whole economics. Having said this still in Blsea, prompt lady are discussed in the low 10usdpmt to tunisia – which shall be in the 4’500 usd daily while according to information we got, owners asking $6000 daily to heads up to morocco… noticeably asking being different than getting. All in all maybe my yesterday tce at $6’000 for end july ends up to be the right one estimation.
This cargo is also seen here 25000 blk wheat 10% ex 1sp out of Constanza ,Novo , Kavkaz , Taman , Tuapse to 1port Libya out of Tripoli, Misurata or Al Khomos l/d 7000 shex/2250 ts fhex Laycan 12/15 july but no ideas disclosed yet. EX USG, to libya still, 20’000mts grains is worked at 35usdpmt which bss 1sp missriver with 6’000x at load and including some extra war risk premium shall give a tce in the 9’000usd daily. Worth to point out he HS4 US Gulf trip via US Gulf or north coast South America to Skaw-Pas sero 28000 is today at 8225 and losing 43pts vs the day before.
On the finance bit of our industry you can either read the attached BMTI with an intersting summary of the MSI analysis. If you’re into the FFA, you can go here http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/asia/dry-bulk-ffa-market-not-inspiring-a-lot-of-confidence.html
on the grains, French soft wheat harvest is 1% completed as of july 4th (source AGS PLAYERS), Place Vendôme French soft wheat harvest is 100% completed (source Jerome Sorrel), see picture here https://www.instagram.com/p/BHmt9NehrPa/?taken-by=jersorr
have a nice week-end and we remain at your disposal. should you have any comments on the above, don’t be shy and post it.