drybulk market is an enigma

Markets seems to start to realize which are the various impacts on the Brexit voted 2 weeks ago. Not talking only about the English Premier League impact about hiring players coming from European countries but the downturned seen earlier this week on the oil price is one of the “side effect” of this decision on the drybulk industry so far, and according to the BDI it has not impacted yet in a negative way. Will the seaborne industry be left aside, we can doubt. Let’s say the later the better.

We mentionned you in the previous reports few info in regards to the new grains crop, (see here previous articles wondering what to do with useless ship/and wasted wheat?  Reading again shall give owners and brokers some input on who will need some grains and from where it is likely to be shipped (or not)…

BLSEA countries are said to be the big grains players exporters. We got the rumor that a 25’000mt stem from Romania to Italy Adriatic was discussed under the 10usdpmt mark with fairly quick shinc terms all ends for loading end July. Basis our calculations, this is giving an equivalent for owners of an handy index type something like USD 6’000 daily bss dely Canakkale redel Passero. Are charterers betting for the BLSEA season picking up as it did last year at the same period and willing to be covered? Knowing these usd 6’000 are double of the levels currently obtained. Meantime, for the purpose of the exercice, exactly the same trade on which we apply USD 3250 daily with today’s bunkers is giving an equivalent on voyage at only 1.75usdpmt less… which is still USD43k less… the trader margin?!

On the CONTINENT side we tend to disagree with BMTI stating “the continent has been particularly quiet with handysize activity at very low level” but we agree with “the chartering market is a bit of an enigma, Many players holding back since nobody has got an idea for the market next moves”. Yes, we disagree with the “slow activity” in Continent we would say the challenge for all parties involved is to find the right timing. And we agree with the “holding back mood” as on all the commodities, players are in expecting mood awaiting for the nice European, English and Occidental politicians, to take the next step (or not) for the Brexit. Specifically on the grains, as already said, traders are awaiting to know the results of the first samples harvested to know where they’re going to source their stem.

In Today’s BDI we can read mv ‘master’ being covered dely Skaw redel SEASIA at $7500 daily if via Cape of Good Hope or $9’350 + ewri if via Suez. Quite likely owners having a strong preference to avoid Gulf of Aden. Handy dely gibraltar redel WMED via continent with grains according to what we heard or have seen or done was yesterday at 4’500usd daily.

ECSA handy activity seems to be slowing down and which ever the size, argentinian and Uruguayan ports are showing level of congestion with quite a strong difference, from touch and go up to 26 days waiting, average being 6 days waiting.

On the larger size, we are seeing fixtures reported from USG heading toward the 15’000 USD daily, wich eventhough the destination is WCCA is starting to give on a 1 run a quite good number for the owners. We heard that the missippi river was getting closed see here http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shipping-mississippi-idUSKCN0ZM1P7 this could have an impact on the logistic and make the barges coming from the country side to the southern ports.

Have a nice evening and we’ll do our best to remain friends with the Germans, whatever the results of tonight.


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