drybulk market still heading north

Up again on the indexes, positive sentiment is still around. according to BMTI, “Quite an amount of fresh new cargoes shows up for supras and handys for prompt trips in both hemispheres“. On the Handy bulk Viewpoint section, on an owners counter indicating 20’000usd daily to a chrtrs  evaluation at 12’000usd on a 58kdwat from continent to China BMTI is concluding this is a signal for a shift of the market in owners favour. To my point of view it could also means that owners has no willingness to trade this cargo unless money being irrationally high. My point of view could make sense given the figures seen in the atlantic basin and prospective for soon starting of the new grain season in the northern hemisphere. Same size lady is proposed 17’000usd daily from USG to India. Main question which Owners have to reply is therefore is it going to last, for how long and up to which level. As I was reading on a commodity market report “Too much money flowing ends up in tears”. But let’s remain optimistic for our industry which is in need for cash in.

Running some tce again, this cargo being seen on the market since yesterday, Bmti seems to know that charterers are aiming to pay below 10usdpmt bss free da’s at load. 20,000 10 BLK GRANULAR UREA ONNE,NIGERIA(FREE D/A)/RIO GRANDE(31FT FW) 5000 SHINC /4000SHINC 4/8 JULY. Firstly, charterers will need to find a candidate keen to call nigeria, then she will need to be on the dates. Which as we all know, a ship discharging in WAFR also means quite some incertainty about her final itinerary. Anyway at 10usdpmt, including some ewp for Nigeria, tce is @ about USD 2’750/3’000 aps daily, same but 9.50usdpmt the tce is falling down to US$ 2’250/2’500 aps daily . We believe charterers will have to pay above 10usdpmt to attract a candidate keen to go to Onne, especially if they are stucked with this laycan. I would say market on such biz being at 11.50/11.75usd pmt which equates to 3’750/4’000usdpdpr.

Ex BLSEA, yesterday we were mentionning 10usdpmt for 25 10 shipment from niko to Egypt Med, same size, ex cheap ukrainian port to Egypt redsea, we understood charterers have to face almost double the freight (in the 18usdpmt range sub lp option and terms). this to cover mainly the suez cost back and forth.

on the grain side

USDA mentionned by BMTI, grains export from US have increased to 2.07MT from mid June, this is up some 25% year-on-year. According to Agritel, see here ,it looks like next Wheat Algerian campaign will be interesting for owners, with quite various origins needed as, if everything remains as it is, french crop quality being quite uncertained. But you know, french people and farmers are full of solutions and surely the french grains houses will find ways to make it fly.

On the owners’ side

not too much changes really, players who are not owners (ie the operators) are asking for more scrapping… few quotes of what we could read this pm in a famous online shipping web info “We prefer a slightly higher bottom level”Really?! ” The business model to which he refers has proven itself quite effective so far […]Instead of purchasing expensive vessels or taking them in on long-term charter contracts, XXXX usually does not book a vessel until the cargo is obtained”. Easy to say when you just book a cargo in and once the cargo in your pocket you go on the market to squeeze owners! For sure operators however need Owners to purchase expensive vessels and keep having good ships on the water…

Have a nice day and should you have ships on the water or cargoes in ports, do not hesitate, we remain brokers and will be pleased to do our best to bridge the gap.

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