drybulk shipping future need more or less ships?

Quite difficult to have a kind off a view on the market while half of the day is without any internet connection (and so no emails) and full day without landlines…To try to bring some input anyway, ex blsea, BMTI is mentionning 30’000 grains from niko to Egypt Med at 10.50 @ tce $3’500/day shall be the cofco cargo of corn w/ 8k / 5k. on this bss, 10.50 usdpmt seems to be more around 4’000usd/daily than 3’500, the difference isn’t hugebut surely owners will not be unhappy to get 12’000usd more on a 25days business. This represents 3 days of hire. Pretty much no changes, bss what we see, hear from Continent or baltic, or ECSA. Interesting info if your trading in/ex WCSA with apparently steady numbers seen on handies.
Talking about commodities, the French wheat crop is said to be in danger with the latest very humid (least to say) weather conditions here. Interesting datas on COAL reported back from Coaltrans Asia meeting “Seaborne trade may fall 30Mt this year”, estimation for “European Coal in Europe likely to fall by 25MT and Indian demand will fall by 11Mt” (source bmti).

S&P, newbuilding activity and scrapping ships is very likely to be the main driver for our shipping market in the next few years. If we believe that Bimco president, namely Philippe Louis Dreyfus knowing what he is talking about, the cure will come from drastic reduction on numbers of ship at sea – see here his speech @ posidonia opening this to be put in perspective with another expert point of view, Mister George Patteras President of the Hellenic Chamber of shipping who also most probably knows what’s about shipping, as his country is worth close to 20% of the global fleet at sea (in Dwt).

In summary when one is saying

We need to demolish an enormous number of ships and refrain from building new ships.”

the other one states proudly

“[…]and we continue to expand as our current newbuilding order book contains 350 ships under construction”

Could be perceived bit schyzophrenic, no? meantime obviously, in a competitive environment, it’s important to make sure you don’t lose market share and you’re still (and remain) stronger (bigger?) than your colleagues.

As always, I agree with the above comments and I believe it is already quite a good start.



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